For the record

In 2006, I started talking about John McCain. Everyone said, "He's a blowhard. He'll never get the nomination. Blah blah blah." Note, I never predicted he would win, but unbeknown to even me, he accomplished something else. Something that could be simultaneously terrifying and exciting.

For the record:

Sarah Palin is now, and will remain, the GOP front-runner for President. And she does not intend to wait until 2016. She will challenge Barack Obama in 2012, and a second term for him is most certainly not guaranteed.

If I'm wrong, I'll happily eat crow. Yummy.

Bloodbath

Scott Black, president and portfolio manager at Delphi Management, says the state of the stock market is a "bloodbath."

USA TODAY reports:

Wealth is being destroyed on Wall Street at a rate not seen since the 1930s. The gains from the 2002-07 bull market are gone. A big chunk of the huge profits from the 1990s dot-com stock boom have been wiped out. In all, after Monday's 300-point drop to 6763, more than 7,400 Dow points, or 52.3%, have disappeared since the October 2007 peak, the biggest-ever point drop. Of all the bear markets in Dow's long history, only the 89.2% drop during the Great Depression was worse.

The Chicago Tribune, if less baneful, agrees, saying:

No question, another spate of bad numbers could be coming. This week's key economic indicators include car sales on Tuesday, retail-chain sales Thursday and what's widely expected to be another disastrous employment report Friday. Analysts believe the economy lost as many as 800,000 jobs last month, which could raise the U.S. unemployment rate to more than 8 percent.

No matter how you cut it, it is bad news, and cause for alarm. Consistent throughout the media coverage is a sense that the lack of confidence is a weak show of support for Obama. USA Today calls it a "vote of no confidence." The president's approval ratings have dropped 8 points over the week, although he is still enjoying high approval overall at 57%, according to Cook political polling, and still averaging a +35% positive approval rating. Those are great numbers, but they won't last if the market doesn't bounce back. Obama is in jeopardy of being, as I would call it, "Carterized." Jimmy Carter was a good president. But he was blamed for failure to adequately address the economic troubles of his time. And this is a lot worse. The faithful have confidence and patience, but if public opinion turns against the stimulus bill and the government, it's trouble.

I have no opinion on how the President should address this, but I do know it was recently leaked that when the reality of just how bad the economy was, and how much worse it was going to get really hit home, then-Senator Obama was heard to joke, "It's not too late to tank this one." (Meaning, lose the election on purpose.) Hopefully the multiple government bailouts that are being conducted will get credit where credit is due, excuse the pun. And, the president will be able to muster more praise. People are tired of spin, so some meat with the bread would be good, too. This sweeping government intervention in the form of the stimulus bill was the event horizon for Obama's win in November, and the speed with which it was created and signed into law was a hallmark moment for the new administration; unfortunately, they will not be able to distance themselves from it if it goes bad, and will have to work to claim credit if it goes well.

What a week it's been, Sarah!

SarahPAC sent out it's first official communique today. The sender, sarah@sarappac.com, is assuredly Palin herself as her signature appear at the bottom of the email. It reads as follows:

Dear Supporter,

I wanted to take a moment to thank you for joining SarahPAC. What a week it has been! Thanks to supporters like you we have had a fabulous start.

I want you to know that I have been truly touched by your notes of support and encouragement and look forward to working with you all in the future to advance our shared ideas and goals. These are just a few of the touching notes I've received from you:

Don from Juneau, AK: "I joined the PAC, and I'm willing to help in any way I can. I firmly believe you are exactly what this country needs, more so now than ever. Go Sarah!"

Cindy from St. Louis, MO: "My husband and I signed up for the PAC this morning. We are thrilled and behind you 100%! We will help any way we can."

Dee from Nashville, TN: "Be courageous! Be strong! Be bold! Don't quit. Thanks for all you've done, there are many of us praying for you daily!"

As a nation, we face serious challenges ahead. Our country is far too dependent on foreign sources of energy. Greed and corruption have broken the public's faith in our economic system.

By speaking out, proposing new policies, and working together, I believe we can ensure that America's best days are ahead of us. And this is what we will accomplish together through SarahPAC.

That is why I hope you will continue to support SarahPAC by encouraging your friends, family, and colleagues to visit our website, www.SarahPAC.com to sign up for updates. With your help, I'll be able to speak out. And you know I will speak for you.

Please stay tuned for more information and updates- I'll be in touch with you soon about more ways to help our PAC.

With an Alaskan heart,

Sarah

P.S. I'm counting on you to spread the word to your friends about SarahPAC. Please tell them to sign up for email updates at www.SarahPAC.com and visit my official Facebook page to share your thoughts and comments. Thank you!

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As I have said in a more private context, this is as transparent as when I received Hillary Clinton campaign materials in the mail in 2006 -- I lived in Oregon -- and she was running for the Senate in New York. Note that the materials I got had no date or political office listed on them, just said "Hillary Clinton," and were red, white and blue. I'd say this email from Sarah Palin qualifies as an obvious indication that she plans to run for President.

Here are a few highlights from the email I'd like to discuss.

What a week it has been!

A quick Google news search for "Sarah Palin" reveals quite a week indeed. Let's look at Palin's checklist over the last bit:

• Test drive my political capital in Texas. Check.
  (Many reasons why Texas is a great proving ground for any Republican)
• Tell Ashley Judd to stuff a sock in it. Check.
• Take an axe to the State budget.Check.
• Get a book deal. Check.
• Write an article defending Arctic drilling. Check.
• Meet the Washington elite. Check.
• Start a fight on The View without even being there. Check.
• Launch my own political action committee. Check.
• Start my presidential campaign. Check.
• Try to co-opt Hillary Clinton's message some more. Check.

I'd say pretty close to every item on that list is addressed in the email from SarahPAC today.

"America's best days are ahead of us," really?? Come on. Sure, Hillary Clinton is not the first politician to say that, but it was a Clinton campaign mantra in 2008. As if SarahPAC wasn't obvious enough an attempt to copy HillPAC. So, co-opting Hillary is covered, again. I wonder if Sarah Palin really thinks Hillary Clinton's supporters would come over to her.

And what is this "With an Alaskan heart" thing" Oh yeah, I forgot one really important check list item:

• Tell the Alaska legislature to shove a sock in it.Reassure the Alaskan people I am still their governor. Check.

The show is getting exciting! Stay tuned!

FEC Reports Sarah Palin As Presidential Candidate 2012

Federal Election Commission: Sarah Palin for President 2012. An FEC spokesperson told the Alaska Dispatch that this was an "erroneous" listing, added due to her starting SarahPAC on Monday. Sure, that's why it's still there.