Specter Is Not Vulnerable, He's Durable

Can it be 2010 already? Please? So we can see Arlen Specter re-elected, as a Democrat this time, and have it done with? Yes, it created a huge wave in D.C. -- as is obvious by the nearly non-stop media feeding frenzy. Including those who seem to think Specter is actually vulnerable in the PA Dem primaries. And yes, he may well be, although I doubt it. But, if Democrats learned anything in 2008, it's that "inevitable" candidates often aren't. Just ask Hillary Clinton.

Regardless of that, let's take a tally of who will be steamrolling the Specter Machine straight back into the Senate in 2010:

• President Obama
• Gov. Rendell
• The DNC
• The DSCC
• The PA Democratic Committee
• And very likely the DLC, who should be nearly frothing at the mouth to get Specter into their ranks

Why would the Democrats prefer Specter over another a more liberal, or more exciting primary challenger? Say it with me: seniority. That's why the GOP is so pissed. It has little to do with losing Specter the man, and everything to do with losing a career politician with the gravity of a small planet in his political sphere. It matters less, honestly, how Specter votes in the Senate than how he directs his influence, particularly inside his chairmanships. He will have a very strong hand to play with Health Care reform, Labor standards, and appropriations, all of which he now brings to the Democrats. A freshman Senator, newly minted from the Pennsylvania Democratic electorate doesn't hold a candle to that, and it would take 30 years or more to get. In terms of lasting value, Specter is grandma's china versus the paper plates a new Senator would be. Democrats aren't stupid; they're looking to build a durable majority, and one of the way to do that is to cultivate seniority. Specter comes with 29 years already built in.

Snowe Calls Out Conservatives Over Specter's Defection

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) has a very good editorial in the New York Times today, calling for more diversity and acceptance of moderates in the GOP, in essence scolding them for driving out Arlen Specter, and saying this was not the first warning. Here are a few select quotes from the article:

It is true that being a Republican moderate sometimes feels like being a cast member of “Survivor” — you are presented with multiple challenges, and you often get the distinct feeling that you’re no longer welcome in the tribe. But it is truly a dangerous signal that a Republican senator of nearly three decades no longer felt able to remainin the party.

Senator Specter indicated that his decision was based on the political situation in Pennsylvania, where he faced a tough primary battle. In my view, the political environment that has made it inhospitable for a moderate Republican in Pennsylvania is a microcosm of a deeper, more pervasive problem that places our party in jeopardy nationwide.

I have said that, without question, we cannot prevail as a party without conservatives. But it is equally certain we cannot prevail in the future without moderates...

...We can’t continue to fold our philosophical tent into an umbrella under which only a select few are worthy to stand. Rather, we should view an expansion of diversity within the party as a triumph that will broaden our appeal. That is the political road map we must follow to victory.

Read the full article here.

Specter Spectacle: Toomey Cries Foul

Pat Toomey, who is an ultra-conservative freakshow, has an editorial in the Washington Times today called "Specter's Betrayal." Toomey will run against Specter in the Pennsylvania mid-terms in 2010. According to several sources, one of Specter's motivations for moving to the Democrats side of the aisle was because multiple polls told him that Toomey would crush him in the PA GOP primaries. However, Specter is counting on his overall popularity in the Keystone State to get re-elected. If he can't get nominated, he can't win. Specter specifically called out Toomey and the far-right of the PA GOP who have "taken control" of the Republican electorate, saying he would not allow his 29-year career to be judged by these people. No doubt Toomey knows if Specter gets on the ballot -- as a Democrat -- he will very likely win re-election. It helps for course that Specter is a long-time friend and political partner of PA's Democratic governor, Ed Rendell.

Specter narrowly defeated Toomey in the 2004 elections, and since that time, Toomey has gone on to be president of the Club For Growth, which is a conservative PAC, and home turf for fiscal and social conservatives. CFG is so ideologically to the right that even most Republicans shy from an endorsement from them. In 2008, Mike Huckabee called them the "Club For Greed," and Sen. John McCain flatly refused an endorsement. For his part, Specter is already slinging mud at Toomey, comparing him to "those AIG guys."

It makes me want to move to Pennsylvania, just so I can vote for Arlen Specter.

Arlen Specter Does Benedict Arnold

Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, longtime GOP heavyweight, announced today that he has become a Democrat. The former Republican said in a press conference, "I have found myself increasingly more at odds with the Republican philosophy." In a separate statement he also said, "I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. I have not represented the Republican Party. I have represented the people of Pennsylvania." The Washington Post describes Specter's final meeting with Senate Republicans yesterday to have consisted of, "stony silence."

Yes, he is making a political survival move. I'm not sure that's wrong however. He seems genuine when he says he is following the will of his state, which has had a nearly unprecedented shift toward the Democratic party, and toward liberal ideals. President Obama is said to have given Specter his full blessing. I say, "bravo!" to Arlen Specter for having the balls to do something like this. It is a huge risk. The GOP is mad as hell, and Democrats are suspicious.

Specter will retain his seniority in the Democratic party as though he were elected Dem in 1980. Specter was one of a wave of Republican officials who rode Ronald Reagan's impressive coat tails. He will become chairman of an influential subcommittee on the Appropriations Committee. He also brings the Democratic caucus to 59 votes, one short of a filibuster-proof 60. If Al Franken (MN) is ever seated, Dems will have a controlling majority of Congress, the first since the first half of Jimmy Carter's presidency in '77-'79. Vice President Biden is reported to have played a key role in smoothing the transition and keeping peace while Specter made the decision. The two are said to be long time friends. The Huffington Post of all places, is giving Hillary Clinton credit, citing the fierce voter registration war waged between Clinton and Obama during the Pennsylvania Democratic primary last year as the major cause of Pennsylvania's massive shift to Blue.

Specter is the 4th most bipartisan-moderate member of the GOP caucus, according to the Congressional Database, and 4th overall in both Houses of Congress. He ranks behind Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), and Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). According to the Washington Post both Senators Snowe and Collins have also been lobbied by the Democrats. Ironically, Olympia Snowe, who is the most centrist member of Congress (between both Houses) by a wide margin, only voting with her party 54.4% of the time, says joining the Democrat party is, "Something I would never do."

Specter's announcement came on the eve of President Obama's 100th day in office. Specter criticized ultra-conservative factions of the GOP for taking control of the caucus, and showed a little anger toward Republican politics and politicians since 2000. If there was ever a clearer slap in the face to the GOP, I've never seen it.

Roll Call: 61-36, Stimulus Passes the Senate

Susan Collins. Olympia Snowe. Arlen Specter. Being the three Senate GOP members who will not be eviscerated by the Democratic party over the stimulus.