Specter Is Not Vulnerable, He's Durable

Can it be 2010 already? Please? So we can see Arlen Specter re-elected, as a Democrat this time, and have it done with? Yes, it created a huge wave in D.C. -- as is obvious by the nearly non-stop media feeding frenzy. Including those who seem to think Specter is actually vulnerable in the PA Dem primaries. And yes, he may well be, although I doubt it. But, if Democrats learned anything in 2008, it's that "inevitable" candidates often aren't. Just ask Hillary Clinton.

Regardless of that, let's take a tally of who will be steamrolling the Specter Machine straight back into the Senate in 2010:

• President Obama
• Gov. Rendell
• The DNC
• The DSCC
• The PA Democratic Committee
• And very likely the DLC, who should be nearly frothing at the mouth to get Specter into their ranks

Why would the Democrats prefer Specter over another a more liberal, or more exciting primary challenger? Say it with me: seniority. That's why the GOP is so pissed. It has little to do with losing Specter the man, and everything to do with losing a career politician with the gravity of a small planet in his political sphere. It matters less, honestly, how Specter votes in the Senate than how he directs his influence, particularly inside his chairmanships. He will have a very strong hand to play with Health Care reform, Labor standards, and appropriations, all of which he now brings to the Democrats. A freshman Senator, newly minted from the Pennsylvania Democratic electorate doesn't hold a candle to that, and it would take 30 years or more to get. In terms of lasting value, Specter is grandma's china versus the paper plates a new Senator would be. Democrats aren't stupid; they're looking to build a durable majority, and one of the way to do that is to cultivate seniority. Specter comes with 29 years already built in.