Barack Obama Takes South Carolina But It's Business As Usual

As predicted by just about every source, Barack Obama took South Carolina by storm. Although I did say he would "take South Carolina by a landslide," it was more of a victory than I imagined even. Obama won by a 28% margin over Clinton -- huge -- whereas the polls were predicting him to beat her by 10-12%. Edwards came in third, as predicted, but he did do slightly better than the polls guessed, with a final of 18% of the vote count, with the prediction at 13%.

The news feeds are calling this a "major setback" for the Clinton campaign. I think that remains to be seen, and is not as true as it could be. Here are a few points:

• Barack Obama is claiming "the most delegates" in the Democratic nomination race. Is it true? Yes and no. Yes, he is currently (thanks to South Carolina) holding the most pledged delegates. However, including Superdelegates, Hillary Clinton is still in a far distant lead, so far ahead that even if John Edwards threw in completely with Obama, Clinton would still be in the lead.


• While there is some chatter about Georgia, (one of the Super Tuesday states) the polls are still showing Hillary Clinton holding a very confident lead in 15 of 18 states. Obama is expected to beat her in Georgia, Illinois and Idaho (by 2% in this state, which is negligible.)


• Also predictably, Bill Clinton is taking the blame for Hillary's 2nd place standing in South Carolina. I very much doubt this is true, as Obama has been the projected winner in SC for a very long time. However, the ex-president's aggressive behavior and attacks on Obama no doubt had something to do with the wide margin. Should Bill back off the aggressive tactics? Probably. Will he? Most likely. Bill Clinton is being lambasted in the media right now, but he is not stupid. He will back off the negative campaigning.


• Once again, enter John Edwards, who gained the most support with "non-Blacks" 30 and over, tied with Clinton in the 60+ age bracket. Although Obama soundly beat both Clinton and Edwards overall, with 54% of the voters being African American (according to the exit polls), the results are skewed. Historically, the major voter turnout in a General Election are the "Over 60" bracket, and women come in a close second -- all Clinton and Edwards strengths.

I think it is too soon to call it an "upset" for Clinton, although it is a very interesting boost for Obama. I do not consider the results as shocking or galvanizing as the media is playing it. Exactly what was predicted happened in South Carolina. So shocking. Within a few days we will see if there is any unexpected effect.