John Edwards: Out of the Race, Into the Machine

John Edwards: Out of the Race, Into the Machine

I have to admit, I was excited when I watched John Edward's "suspension" speech on the news last night. Not because I dislike him; in fact, I much prefer Edwards as my 2nd choice candidate. Rather than end his campaign, he is jumping deep into the political stew of the presidential nomination game. He stayed in the race long enough to build a support base, grab a substantial number of Democratic delegates, and to get his agenda on the agenda.

Of course the news feeds have already gone wild. Who will Edwards endorse? Is he hoping for a VP spot or a cabinet post promise from the eventual nominee? What way will the Edwards wind blow?

The majority of opinions are leaning toward the Edwards bow-out benefiting Obama. I cannot see how this is true, except in the broadest sense. Edwards supporters are going to be divided up between Obama and Clinton because they are the only two choices left that make a difference. So, it is going to benefit both of them. But, the real winner is more likely to be Clinton. Exit polls from every primary and caucus thus far have supported this: Clinton and Edwards have the most similar support base, have the most closely aligned political track record, and have had the most commerce between each other's campaign.

What is Edwards really doing? This should be obvious. He pulled out of the presidential race before Super Tuesday, in spite of his claims that he would stick it out through the end, to ensure his predicted role as "kingmaker" of the 2008 nomination. As the poll gap is closing between Clinton and Obama daily, and with the hotly contested importance and eventual outcome of Michigan and Florida's "beauty contest" primaries, the likelihood of a brokered convention is looming. A brokered convention could be very bad news for the Democratic race, no matter who wins the nomination.

What's wrong with a brokered convention?

Repeat after me: John McCain. With Rudy Guiliani dropping out on the Republican race on the same day as Edwards, and giving an unquestionable endorsement for McCain, the threat level is dramatically upped. McCain is quickly turning into the powerhouse of the Republican campaign, and his poll numbers are very potent. From the start, he has consistently shown in the polls his ability to beat the Democratic candidates. If the Democrats have to go through a brokered convention to settle on a Democratic nominee for president, they are going to suffer an image problem. The Dems are going to look indecisive. Even though the Democratic campaign has been much more focussed and consistent from the start, that will not mean anything if they can't keep that momentum in selecting a final nominee. Also, whoever wins in a brokered convention (Clinton or Obama) is going to have to struggle with questions about their legitimacy: did they really win the nomination or did they out-maneuver their opponents behind closed doors? Not just the candidates, but the Democrats as a whole need a clear popular winner of the bid for the nomination to bolster the case against McCain.

Once more, as I have been saying for some time now: enter John Edwards.

Edwards is still holding enough delegates to swing the nomination. And, all indications show that he will use them after Super Tuesday. Clinton is maintaining her #1 spot in the polls overall, but the gap is closing. In one perspective, this is very exciting, as it is making the campaign balanced and fair. Everyone likes a good game. But, on the other hand, I have very serious doubts about Obama's ability to carry his popularity all the way to the White House. I don't think he can stand up to John McCain who is going to show some real political might very soon. I see an Obama vs. McCain race as very damaging to the Dems. McCain is popular, very popular. Even the Democrats like him. If the dividing line is going to be drawn between those two, I think Obama could lose a lot. On the other hand, in a Clinton vs. McCain race, I think the favor would still clearly fall to Hillary Clinton who still enjoys front-runner status. If she can keep that status all the way to November, McCain will not be as much of a threat.

I'm will hold off any official predictions for another couple days, but it is my bet still that Edwards is going to align himself with Clinton. I think he sees the need to avoid a brokered convention, and I think he sees eye to eye with Clinton much more than the media wants us to think. Clinton and Obama are both going to benefit from the Edwards withdrawal, but when push comes to shove and it's time to toss delegates at someone, Clinton will be the main beneficiary.