Well, in spite of all the wild speculation, jockeying, in-fighting, and general mayhem that has broken out in the Democratic campaign.... I have an opinion.
First of all, John Edwards seems to be making a very interesting 11-th hour comeback of sorts. He is hitting the news feeds as the "kingmaker" of the campaign. Al Gore could weigh in on this one, but I think the combination of his own reticence and his very frayed relationship with the Clintons is holding him back. I see very little hope that Gore will step up in support of any candidate until the primaries are won, and the true presidential campaign is on.
John Edwards however, is playing a very interesting game.
When he was very anti-Hillary (at least how it was spun by the media) he is all of a sudden showing up in pictures with her, having "unplanned" meetings and (like I said) hitting the mews feeds as the "kingmaker" in the situation.
Combine this with how the polls are looking: Hillary Clinton is still holding a very confident lead across the nation as the most likely Democratic presidential candidate. If nothing else supports it (which most everything does) all you need to do is look at how much "security in-trade" has been spent on her: See the numbers here Hillary has drawn 4.0 MILLION, which represents 66% of the trades. A HUGE lead over Obama or Edwars who have drawn (respectively) $32.2M and $0.09M.
However..... Here, you can clearly see the Edwards is the most able to beat ANY GOP candidate.
Regardless of that, Edwards is not going to get the nomination. His numbers inside the Dem party and in the caucus / primary circus are way too low. The fact that he has not folded yet, and continues to maintain a campaign presence, says something.
What does all this mean?
Well, I still stick to my prediction that the race will be between Hillary Clinton and John McCain.
However, I get the feeling that the democratic campaign is starting to shift more away from who the presidential candidate will be and more TOWARD who will be on the VP ticket. Hillary's momentum has really only been challenged one time, in Iowa. And, the "Howard Dean Moment," and her loss in Iowa in general, propelled her back to the forefront. With John McCain constantly gaining, the race has to focus on a WINNIG TEAM for the Democrats.
In spite of any GOP waffling and infighting, John McCain represents a real threat to a Democratic win in November. He is the most popular Republican for the Democrats, and his national numbers are WAY more solid than any other candidate.
So, what pairing will "guarantee" a Democratic win in November?
I think it could be CLINTON / EDWARDS. It would be nice to see Clinton / Obama, but I'm not so sure that would work. Clinton and Obama are the frontrunners right now, but that is without regard for what will happen when / if John Edwards presidential hopes fold and he throws his lot in with one or the other. Even though Edwards is showing poorly in the polls in comparison to Clinton and Obama, he is holding enough of the favor to swing the nomination one way or the other. Add, again: Edwards being the most likely to beat the GOP, particularly McCain...
Hmmmmm............
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Will John Edwards Be the 'Kingmaker' in 2008?
Labels:
barack obama,
campaign 2008,
hillary clinton,
john edwards
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