Analysis: Wisconsin Exit Polls

It's a depressing result for Clinton. Even though her campaign managed expectations for Wisconsin, and she still came away with enough delegates to stay competitive, it still looks bad. Obama now has a true boast: ten consecutive wins, and a pattern: Obama overperformed and Clinton underperformed, again.

Here's a quick look at the broad strokes of the exit polls:

Middle aged women dominate. 58% of Wisconsin votes were from women, and 63% of voters were 45 or older. Men overwhelmingly preferred Obama, 67% to 31% in his favor, but the vote was 50/50 with women.

Here's a few more detailed highlights, with some comments:

*Clinton is still dominating in the over 60 crowd, and is still hovering in the 46-50% range with the middle aged voters. Obama takes the under 40 voters by storm, and the younger the voter, the more dramatic. In the 18-29 bloc, Obama smashed Clinton with 66%.
*In the religious bloc, Obama won handily as well, except in one notable area: Clinton was preferred heavily by regularly practicing Catholics.
*This is interesting as well: 84% of polled voters said gender was not an critical issue, but the voters who supported Clinton indicated it was a major factor in their choice.
*Income polls show that the voters with high incomes preferred Obama, with the Illinois Senator floating in the 60% area with voters making $50,000 or more annually. Also, 60% of polled voters fell into that bloc.
*Economy was the most important issue for voters by a long shot, at 45%, and the general results most closely reflect that preference as well, with Obama at 57% and Clinton at 41%. Iraq and Health Care tied in the polls at 26% importance, with Obama far outstripping Clinton on Iraq, but close on Health Care.
*Also interesting, Clinton won the most White Democrats at 51%, but Obama surged past her in the White Independent vote, taking 62% to her 35%.
*Candidate qualities polled show that Change takes the day, with Obama sweeping it at 77% likely to bring change to the country, with Experience coming in second, an area where Clinton destroyed Obama, landsliding 95% of the exit polls.
*Very interesting: 86% of voters said that race was unimportant, much like gender was considered unimportant by 83%. What is interesting is that Clinton has the most support with women and white democrats, but Obama still won the primary.

As has already been seen in other exit polls, Clinton's supporters are much more dedicated to Clinton, indicating a strong disfavor for Obama if Hillary loses. Obama supporters on the other hand show a much more cooperative voting attitude, indicating much more that they would support Clinton if Obama loses. I think this might be a critical issue for both candidates. If Clinton supporters start defecting to McCain, or just don't bother to vote at all, it could present a serious risk to Obama. Whereas, if Clinton is the nominee, a considerable margin of Obama's supporters would still back her. But, the fact still remains that rich white men prefer Obama. Rich white men prefer McCain, too, with the Republican exit polls almost a (reverse) mirror image of the Democratic polls.

I believe that John McCain could swing the nomination to Clinton. McCain's demographic is almost identical to Obama's, which to me indicates he could eat into Obama's chances much more readily. Comparing McCain to Obama, we also see that McCain trumps the white male vote, the $50,000+ crowd, religious voters, and commander-in-chief confidence votes. While Obama still shows poll victories over McCain, I personally believe it is due to comparisons to Hillary Clinton, not a true reflection of what November will look like. Combine that with the chance of Clinton supporters possibly defecting, and it could get very dirty. As Obama is steadily gaining, and the idea that he will be the nominee become more and more real, I think this factor is getting ignored.

I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. The overwhelming evidence supports my theory about Clinton loyalty. What would happen if Obama won the nomination then a major bloc of Clinton supporters defected? Clinton has said that no matter what, the Democratic party will be unified behind whoever the nominee is, but I think her supporters are so fervent, that might not be as true as everyone from the DNC down is saying. This presidential race is about to get a lot more divisive, a lot nastier, and a lot hotter. Every single issue, no matter how inconsequential, is going to get analyzed, debated, and disputed. Both democratic campaigns are going to go negative. The rhetoric from both candidates is going to get thick. Clinton is going to keep hammering on experience, and Obama on change.

Wisconsin makes it sharply clear that Clinton absolutely must pull big wins on March 4th. Even though Obama was expected to win in Wisconsin, the margin of victory was much larger than expected. The Clinton campaign should be prepared for that by now, but it still seems they are not. Obama has dangled a golden carrot in front of American voters, and it is looking like Clinton's best chance to secure the nomination will be two-fold: most important, solid wins in March, and equally important, Clinton needs to draw legitimate and popular criticisms of Obama into the media. Even though it looks like the plagiarism accusations against Obama are being easily dismissed, they have started the ball rolling in that direction.

The next big contests are 13 days away. This gives time for both candidates to get out there and really get their positions heard. There are two upcoming debates, which could help Clinton, as long as she can keep the debates focussed on her strengths. The Ohio and Texas polls are still favoring her, but again, we've seen this before. Clinton did stay competitive in Wisconsin, in spite of the media focus on Obama's win, and she is still in the race. I think another thing that is certain is this: Clinton will not call it quits until there is no realistic chance at all, and she shouldn't. As much as the popular sentiment is favoring Obama at the moment, this is what is exciting and real about American politics.

I will state my opinion, again, for the record: I find the Obama surge very disheartening. I do not believe he is the great reformer and inspirational savior of America. I believe as president, Obama will be weak, and will spend his entire presidency defending his image, and will have to fight tooth and nail to get the smallest things accomplished. I think his tall talk and his idealistic platform are paper tigers, a symbol only, that will mean nothing inside the complicated machine of Washington. I think the man is beating the woman again -- big surprise.