Wisconsin & Hawaii Predictions

I'll keep this brief. And I'll start by saying, no matter who the winner is in these two states, it's going to be close, and it's going to staunch the bleeding in the Clinton campaign.

No polls have been released from Hawaii. If there are any internal ones, they are keeping them close to home. It's a toss up there. Hawaii is Obama's birth state, but Clinton's campaign co-chair in the state is also the president of the Hawaii Senate. For a change, Chelsea is the bigger name on the campaign trail in Hawaii, grabbing far more headlines than Obama's half-sister Maya Soetoro-Ng. Obama is predicted to win in Hawaii, based on national poll leaning, in lieu of any poll data from the state itself.

The polls are predicting for Obama in Wisconsin, too, but a lot closer. Both candidates have campaigned harder, longer, and louder in the Badger State. Obama has been all over the state lobbying for union support, and Clinton's unexpected layover kept her on the trail there, instead of heading out to Texas. Clinton has enjoyed a popularity surge in Wisconsin, and this may give her the competitive edge she is hoping for.

The Clinton camp is projecting "good performance" in Wisconsin, setting up the expectation of an Obama win, but stressing that Hillary will still hold her own. The American Research Group stands alone in predicting a win for Hillary in Wisconsin, while other polls show a virtual tie, with Obama edging just past Clinton. Wisconsin is a "should be" for Obama, something we have seen backfire for Clinton before. Coming into the race ahead, Obama stands to lose more, too. Wisconsin's primary is open, allowing independents to vote, so it makes the state more of a wild card than some.

I personally believe Wisconsin is a "backfill" for Clinton. I think her focus on March 4th and the primaries in Texas and Ohio while warranted in many ways, has also served as a distraction from Wisconsin. With predicted big wins in upcoming states, and by spinning Wisconsin for Obama, the Clinton campaign has done a good job of setting up a potential "upset" in Wisconsin. Interestingly, American media is predicting for Obama, while international media in countries like England and Australia are predicting for Clinton. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict for Clinton, too.

My predictions are:

Hawaii: Obama 60% / Clinton 40%
Wisconsin: Obama 45% / Clinton 55%