Positive Effects of Dems Battle On McCain Campaign

Hey, that rhymes, "McCain Campaign." Something that has been largely ignored is the idea that the protracted battle between Senators Clinton and Obama could have some negative effects on the GOP side. The idea at this time is that the longer it takes the Democrats to get behind one or the other, the harder it will be to win in November. While this idea has credence, there could be some positive effects as well.

Foremost, I believe that the longer McCain is unsure who he is running against, the longer both Dems have to build a case against him, and the less time he has to frame his campaign. Ironically for the GOP, who by and large probably have some serious misgivings about McCain, I think only John McCain stands a chance of being competitive in November. Any other Republican would be annihilated in the current political wind. Hillary Clinton said, "The [GOP] should be so embarrassed by the Bush administration they should not even tender a candidate this year," in the Austin debate on February 26th, for which she got a standing ovation. The sentiment is likely true. I believe anyone but McCain would be eaten alive by any Democrat. Unfortunately, the GOP did tender a candidate, and it was one who presents a serious threat to Democratic entitlement in November.

Here are a few things I feel may be positively effecting the Dems, and negatively effecting the GOP because of the extended Democratic race:


McCain will not pick a VP until the Democratic nomination is settled

McCain is tight lipped on the issue. This is normal in one way, that he is reserving the announcement for after he officially gets the nod. Clinton and Obama are both silent on a VP pick for the same reason. Regardless, it would be much easier and much more acceptable for McCain to at least let the media name his #2 at this point, but he can't until he knows if he will be facing Clinton or Obama in the November. While the choice of a VP normally has little effect on the results of an election, it is a bigger issue for McCain because of his age, and because of the polarity of his opponents. Clinton and Obama represent different challenges for him and his VP pick will likely be his answer to those differing contrasts.


Divide and Conquer

Again, while the protracted Dem campaign has been pitched as giving McCain time to test drive strategies against both of them (even by me), I don't see that happening. I see McCain unable to focus in on one or the other other and start tearing them apart. He has only been able to target broad issues like Iraq and NAFTA, where both Democrats have nearly identical positions. McCain's main strategy up to this point seems to be: stay friendly. He had an opportunity with both Ferraro and Wright to cast either of them in very negative light and both times rejected the idea as small minded. He has not attacked Clinton's experience or Obama's liberal change platform. This is almost eerie. What is he planning? Surely, McCain is intelligent enough to know he is not going to coast to an easy victory in November. McCain has taken a pot shot here and there at specifics of each candidate's platforms, but has not been able to narrow his focus as much as he could if there were only one. I believe the extended visibility of multiple Democratic candidates has crippled GOP strategy somewhat, forcing them to focus on image and general issues.


McCain vs. ...?

Obama and Clinton represent very different campaigns to McCain.

Democrats have all seen the "Obama Effect" and know what it can do to an otherwise strong opponent. GOP cockiness has dismissed him as too liberal, too inexperienced, too black. (Sounds familiar doesn't it?) I doubt at this point these kinds of attacks are a surprise to Obama, and I believe he has shown he can survive the attack machines. What he will have a very hard time with is McCain's experience, which includes a very long political career, military experience, and an impressive track record of supporting bipartisan legislature. McCain, oddly enough, will look more liberal compared to Obama. Not more liberal than Obama, but more liberal than he really is. If he has to face Obama in November, his best strategy will be a bifocal push with experience on one side and his "maverick" image on the other. McCain will have a much better chance of pulling Independents away from Obama than he would against Clinton. Obama would polarize the general election with his much greater contrast to McCain, and his strengths would be in difference creating cooperation, and the "enough with the same old same old" stance. Obama's anti-war stance may well be a liability by November, but he will have an easy time painting McCain in very ugly colors on his social and fiscal platforms. Obama represents a contrast in total to McCain, which will make McCain's campaign easier to frame, but harder to carry out.

Clinton has more moderate appeal, and that presents a whole different set of problems for McCain. While there is a rumor that GOP double agents are supporting the Clinton campaign because she will be easier to defeat in November, I think this is dead wrong. Holding up a Clinton in front of a Republican is like holding up a cross in front of a vampire, "It burns, it burns!" Clinton has been clear that one of her campaign pillars is vendetta against the Bush administration and GOP pandering to it, and McCain is already dovetailing into the Bush schematic very nicely. Against Clinton, McCain will have to combat the Clinton brand. Bill Clinton may be a liability now, but in the general election, a return of the Clinton agenda will look a lot sweeter. Clinton also arguably has more pull with Independents who are hesitant to back the more liberal Obama. In addition, I believe there is fairly clear support for true GOP defectors to Clinton. Something that has been overlooked in the race so far is Clinton's appeal to women in general; recent reports from Pennsylvania show that a mass of the GOP defectors in the Keystone State are women, and I doubt they are doing it because Rush Limbaugh told them to. Against Clinton, McCain will be challenged to distinguish himself from Bush style government without undercutting his conservative supporters, who are his bread and butter.


An Energized Voter Base

By time time all the primaries are over and Democrats go to Denver for the final match in the ring, record voter turnouts will be undeniable. The battle between Clinton and Obama has drawn out voting bases unseen in elective history. People who have never voted before are getting involved in the Democratic race. While there is still squabbling over where those people will fall in November, the fact remains that visibility of and importance of this race are over the top. I believe the importance of voting, and of getting your voice heard will carry over to the general election. Democrats will be able to harness the massive voter surge, which would benefit either of them. The fact that millions of new voters are already registered or registering to vote now means they will not have that hurdle to jump in the fall. It also means they are already paying attention. With a little spin, either Democrat could easily take the tooth-and-nail element of their internal battle and turn that tide against McCain.

In conclusion, let me say that I hope Democrats will be as unified in November as they say they will be. A new Gallup poll is suggesting an alarming defection to McCain if Obama gets the nomination. A smaller portion of polled voters indicated the same thing if Clinton gets the nod, but I don't think that threat is as real. Clinton loyalty is a brand of its own, versus Obama-mania which I believe will much more easily translate to "unity" if Clinton goes to bat in November. I don't think the fallout will be as dire as either side predicts, but Clinton has always lead in supporter loyalty. This has been spun as a negative, because it could "cost Democrats the presidency." That is based on the assumption that Obama will be the nominee, which is no more real at this point than Clinton's claim. Demonstrating voter retention is a strength. I believe that either Clinton or Obama will be a powerhouse against McCain, and while I do see the head-to-head results favoring Clinton at this time, I think Obama would still have a very good chance. While I can't avoid my own bias completely, this essay is not about Clinton vs. Obama. It is about Democrats vs. McCain, and in that battle, I still think the Democrats have a leg up.