Here it is again. Rice and the VP plug. I'm still not ready to all-in predict for McCain-Rice, but I still think it's the most likely answer.
Rice's VP bid
I've said, and it is true for the most part, that VP picks really have little to do with the direct outcome of a Presidential election. I think this year, it will have a little more than usual. But, VP's tend to be picked for 2 main reasons: 1) to bolster the candidate's weak area(s) and 2) to serve as the underscoring contrast to the Other Guy. In terms of vs. Clinton or vs. Obama, Rice is black and she's a woman. Rice is also vastly popular inside the GOP, and has been a fairly decent Secretary of State. She has a very long political career, and she in a sideways way bolsters McCain's "maverick" image because she is a GOP defector, and her stated reasons makes the GOP look more liberal than the Democrats. (I know, it hardly seems possible, but in her case, it is probably actually true.) The other thing Rice represents, that no one else could, is continuity of Bush White House. She has been a Bush strongman for both Bush presidencies and was a Reagan wrangler, too. More than just Bush continuity, she represents the entire GOP schema for the last 25 years. She's smart, successful, and upwardly mobile in government.
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