Clinton Leads In 14-State Survey

On Thursday, April 17th, SurveyUSA released 14 state level head-to-heads comparing McCain vs. Clinton and McCain vs. Obama. While both Democrats soundly beat McCain, the results dramatically favor Clinton. The 14 states surveyed represent 27.5% of states and 38.5% of available electoral votes. The sampling is slightly heavier than the average nationwide electoral count, and only 3 Red states are polled. It is certainly not a perfect sample, but it is geographically decent cross section. Before I get into any details, let me say, I think the news is not as dire as it looks for McCain, and overall it is very reassuring news for Democrats. However, I also believe it demonstrates strong support for Clinton's greater electability claim.

Here are a few highlights from the results: (A simple percentage list can be found here.)

• 3 Red states were polled (Alabama, Kansas & Virginia), 8 Blule States (California, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Oregon and Wisconsin) and 3 Swing States (Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio.)
  
• Overall, in electoral value, Clinton beats McCain, 77%-23%


• Overall, in electoral value, Obama beats McCain, 57%-43%


• Overall, Clinton takes 1 Red state and 2 swing vs. McCain


• Overall, Obama takes 1 Swing State vs. McCain


• Overall, McCain takes 1 swing and 1 blue vs. Clinton, and 2 swing and 1 blue vs. Obama


• Clinton and McCain are tied in Wisconsin, but Obama wins by 5 points.


• There are 4 states that only 1 Democrat wins.
  1 for Obama who takes Iowa by 7 points, but McCain beats Clinton by 6 points.
  3 for Clinton: New Mexico by 3 points, McCain beats Obama by 6; Ohio by 11 points, McCain beats Obama by 2; and the big upset, Red State Virginia, where Clinton demolishes McCain by 16 points, but McCain beats Obama by 8 points.


• Virginia is also the only state that shows a significant variance from the Democratic primaries. Obama left Clinton in the dust in Virgina, beating her by 29 points in the Feb 12th Democratic primary. But, in the SUSA head-to-head, Clinton steals Virginia by a long way, and Obama loses it by a convincing margin. Florida polls also show Clinton having a very good chance of beating McCain as well, whereas Obama loses Florida by nearly 12 points.


• Overall, of the 14 polled, Clinton performs better in both Red and Swing states


• Of the 14 states, Clinton wins 5 states (California, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio and Virgina) by double digits and wins 10 overall. Obama has no double digit wins, but 4 states he wins by 9 points (Minnesota, Missouri, New York and Oregon) and wins 8 overall.

No matter how you cut the data, it looks better for Clinton. By electoral weight, she performs nearly 20% stronger than Obama. I can hear the argument already, "Obama is ahead in the Democratic race, and they both win, so Obama must be the nomineee." I find two things wrong with that. First of all, Obama's lead could still be lost, and the electability argument is going to figure in. Second, I believe the loud and clear Democratic mission is: we must have a Democratic president; if we are taking no chances, we should pick the person who performs the strongest against McCain. These 14 states definitely do not tell the whole story, and there are still 9 more nominating contests that will no doubt greatly effect the outcome. But, as I've said, I believe the data greatly favors Clinton.