Is Obama Tanking Himself On Purpose?

Wild Speculation Warning.

There's an interesting dovetail going on that has not gotten much notice. There is a fair argument that they are unconnected, and they may be, but I don't think so. I see Obama making big blunders while simultaneously smoothing the path for Clinton with his own words.

I have a laundry list of gripes about Barack Obama. Regardless of those, one thing I find good and refreshing about him is that he is intelligent, well spoken and insightful. At least I thought so until he called small town Pennsylvanians "bitter." His attempt to quell the flames only fanned them. What no one will say (yet) is that Obama has in essence said that the middle class is so ignorant they can't see the big picture so they "cling" to incidental issues like guns and god. Apparently he's forgotten that religious tolerance and the right to bear arms are staples of the American cultural diet. Anyone who says that I cling to my religion out of bitterness or fear has lost my vote.

I have often and harshly criticized Obama's arrogance. I believe he has crossed the line at this point from arrogance to snobbery. I hate to sound like a Clinton parrot, but he really has exposed himself as "elitist and out of touch." He's brought the same doom on himself that John Kerry did, and just like Kerry, he did it with his own words. And, like it or not, words are fair game. There is nothing wrong with Clinton or McCain jumping on it. This is a contest. And, it's not one about who runs the fastest or jumps the highest. It's about character, actions, and words. It's about convincing Americans that you are the right person to be President. What you say, and how you say it, matters. What if it was Clinton who had said something like that? Obama and the media would have ripped into her so hard she might actually be writing a concession speech by now.

Notice that this time Obama is not saying it's "fair game" (like he did over Wright.) Why? Because he knows he's in trouble over this. And he knows he said it, so he doesn't have the sidestep defense. Also, letting Clinton jump all over Wright at least gave the opportunity for her to make some kind of racist bungle. With this one, not so much. This was a gift, wrapped with a bow and hand delivered to Clinton. This could be the end of Barack Obama '08.

I'm not ready to write Obama's political obituary. People said Wright was going to sink him (and he still might) and it didn't. People said Ferraro was the end of Clinton, and before it was all said and done, Ferraro actually looked right. Both candidates have shown great elasticity and great alacrity in dealing with major blows to their campaigns. But, this is a very big blunder for Obama, and one that is going to reflect in the Pennsylvania primary nine days from now.

Here's why I ask, "Is Obama tanking himself on purpose?"

John McCain

Foremost, I believe John McCain is showing himself to be a much more formidable opponent against Obama than against Clinton. While national head-to-heads would have you believe otherwise, in state results, Clinton wins more often than Obama. Clinton also performs the strongest with the Jewish vote (i.e., Florida), Hispanics and the working class, very strong. These are critical demographics where McCain is much more competitive with Obama. McCain is also obliterating Obama on foreign relations, comprehensive views of Iraq, and on Clinton's campaign staple, experience. Democrats are largely wearing blinders to McCain's true popularity, but like it or not, Mac has stepped up to the plate and is hitting run after run. I'll say it again: I have been warning against John McCain for two years, saying he has a very real chance of winning.

Clearing The Path For Clinton

Obama said Wright was fair game. Obama said Hillary should not drop out. Obama said the primaries should run to the end. It could be argued that statements like these are designed to make him look more confident, or to assist in changing the tone of the Democratic race toward friendly. I don't think so. I think it's too late for anyone to think this race is friendly. Fairness, maybe. Friendly, hardly. The irony here is that the Democratic race has been friendly, compared to what the General is really going to be like. Again, Democrats are wearing blinders. If they really think the GOP and veiled McCain operatives are going to be nice about things like Wright and flip-flopping on gun control, they need to have another cup of coffee. At this point Clinton needs to stay in the race so that there is an option. As much as there is a fear that the Dem race is going to hurt the campaign overall, I believe there is equal fear that Democrats will lose if they choose a candidate who is too liberal, or too distanced from the working class. Obama distanced himself from the working class this weekend, a long distance.

Long Strategy

What if McCain wins? Barack Obama will not run against him in '12. If that were the case, Al Gore or John Kerry would be running now. Democrats particularly (even more so than the GOP) don't re-nominate last cycle's loser. They don't even seem to have the "runner up" mentality that the GOP has (which has been pretty effective if you look at trends.) McCain's image and his strength in the polls are altering the Democratic reality. The surety of a Democratic win in November is no longer sure, and I believe it has little to do with the long Democratic battle and much to do with McCain's general appeal. Again, like it or not, McCain is popular and he has bipartisan appeal. Obama really doesn't, and he is losing what he might have had. McCain looks more progressive on issues you would never expect from a Republican like immigration and government reform. Obama talks about using bipartisan policy and procedure while holding the record as the "most liberal" Senator in the country. The only way he is going to actually get any bipartisan support is by rejecting the Democratic agenda which at this time is rabidly anti-GOP. Don't hold your breath.

So, set yourself up for a graceful exit. Let Clinton take the fall in the fall. Sweep the Democratic primaries in '12 and kick out McCain. If that doesn't happen, and Clinton wins, it would be very easy for Obama to be cast as the "natural successor" of Clinton. I've said it before, I'll say in now: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can both be President, if they do it in the right order. A couple more terms in the Senate, or a successful stretch in a key administration role would easily position Obama for a true landslide down the road.

Tank But Don't Destroy

There is a line to walk. While Michelle Obama has said that there will only be one chance to vote for Obama, implying he would not run again, this is malarkey. It's very clear that Obama is upwardly mobile in government, interested in being a reformer and a decision maker, and intent on positioning himself as a liberal unifier. The campaign is not over, Obama is still holding a technical lead, and lacking any new contests to see a change (or not) in the balance, there is no reason for him to openly give signs that he might quit. However, there are very good reasons to start paving the road for post-campaign image. If Obama allows himself to be totally destroyed, it's over. This is not really the case for Clinton, who can fairly claim that there really isn't anything they can say about her she hasn't heard. The likelihood of Obama becoming a flash in the pan is much higher than for Clinton, whose name alone is a brand, and whose husband will still be an ex-President no matter what happens. Even if Obama does win the nomination, he needs to tread carefully around the Clinton machine.

In conclusion, let me say again that this is wild speculation on my part. But, I stand by my belief as well that Barack Obama really cannot win the General election. Not any more. He's alienated the working class. It cannot be ignored. The conservatives are also going to destroy him over Wright, and I believe he may have hurt himself in the black demographic, too. Call it swift boating. Call it dirty politics. Call it what you want. I don't pretend that it's not any of those things. But, I also don't pretend that those things are not real, with real effects, and real consequences. I could be wrong, but I think the truth will be told in the exit polls on April 22.