Never Count Out A Clinton

If I were a strategist for Camp Clinton, I would be overjoyed right now.

First of all, how much lower could the bar be set? The punditry has declared the Democratic race over, in an authoritative tone unseen before now. Obama's campaign is floating the idea that "letting the rest of the primaries carry out" (oh thank you for your permission) is now a good idea because it is somehow (all of a sudden) good for the party. Superdelegates are now talking about the "dream ticket." Even Clinton's campaign is letting serious "she knows it's over" rumors leak. (And, I think we all know, these leaks are not uncontrolled.) Hillary's done. It's over. She can never win now. (Sounds awfully familiar to me...)

So, what happens in 4 days when she hits it out of the park in West Virginia? Then, another one in Kentucky? Polls are predicting both of those states to be huge blowouts for Clinton in the 30-40 point range, versus probably a 15-20 point win for Obama in Oregon.

Laugh if you will. But, now that everyone seems to have granted permission for Clinton to carry on, she is going to do exactly that. Huge wins are still huge wins, and as low as expectations are right now, they are going to be even bigger. Also, now that Michigan seems to be on the way to a resolution, it can't be much longer for Florida, either. While the media is (ironically) calling Michigan a victory for Obama, I don't see how they will be able to justify that spin for Florida.

Also, explain this to me: if it's over for Hillary, how come her performance in General Election polls is still getting stronger? She has gained in national head-to-heads every day since Indiana. The idea that she will not continue this trend after two landslide victories in the next 12 days is naive at best.

Clinton's campaign has been based on electability for a long time. It has been known for at least a month that there is a snowball's chance of her passing Obama in delegate count before the remaining supers vote. But, really, what happens if Clinton's lead over McCain in the polls jumps to 5, 10, even a 15 point lead by June 1st? She's at a 4 point lead now in the wake of probably the worst week of her campaign (at least in popular perception.) Obama is holding onto his lead over McCain now, but it has wavered quite a bit, falling as low as .02; in fact, after Pennsylvania, McCain regained a lead over Obama while Clinton's continued to grow.

Nothing has changed statistically. Yet, everyone seems to think the game is actually over. I've been saying it all along. I'll say it now. It aint over til it's over, and it may well not be over until August. Never count out a Clinton.