The Obama Effect Is Back From The Shop

This has got to be the quietest post-primary day of the cycle. There is a palpable hush across the media feeds, and both Democratic campaigns. A broad Google search for either "Hillary Clinton" or "Barack Obama" produce a paltry handful of results less than 12 hours old. Not even a handful really, one each. I am on at least a dozen Clinton-friendly mailing lists and about half that many Obama lists, and I have not gotten one email from either of them this morning. Normally, it's about one each or more per day, ready for the 8-9am readers. Even the crackpots at MoveOn are silent this morning (note that they spent their day yesterday trying to convince me to play the "Bush-McCain Game," like anyone who supports MoveOn needs reminders of their similarities.) Nothing from the DNC mailing lists.

It's like people are surprised by the results from North Carolina and Indiana, stunned even. This is what surprises me. For as long as there have been viable polls, it has been predicted that the May 6th primaries would be a split. Possibly, Clinton's campaign mismanaged expectations in North Carolina, but let's not forget that Ace Smith, Clinton's NC campaign director unequivocally indicated Clinton could not win NC. Let's also not forget that Obama's campaign circulated a memo predicting a 7-point win in Indiana, which they certainly did not get. Barack Obama himself also said that Indiana would be the "tie breaker" between Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which, according to that logic, would mean Clinton won yesterday overall.

Of course that isn't what happened. What happened is this: Obama overperformed and Clinton underperformed. The usual demographic divide happened. Even though Clinton won the white vote by a crushing margin in NC, the black vote and the under 30 crowd carried Obama to a big win. Clinton's victory statewide in Indiana was actually quite convincing as well, but once again, Obama stacked up big, urban victories that dwindled the final numbers down to roughly a 2 point spread. What's interesting is how wrong the pollsters were. They have fairly consistently under-predicted for Clinton and over-predicted for Obama, and this time the results were opposite.

But, is the end result actually all that different from what we knew was going to happen? Or is it the sudden lack of available delegates now, on May 7th? Last night just under half the delegates still up for grabs between now and the first week of June got handed out. Clinton's popular vote arguments got a serious hit to the belly. The Obama Effect seems to be back from the shop.

Calls for Clinton to quit the race are going to get loud and serious now. The cancellation of all her Wednesday events seems to indicate that she herself is at least weighing the options. In the small hours of the night, the Clinton campaign did announce a couple events down the road, but this is likely "insurance" posturing, and could change. If Clinton can keep her campaign afloat one more week, we might see a new flush of momentum. If she can get to the West Virginia primary on May 13th, where it is a fair estimate that she will score a true landslide (a 30 to 40 point lead) we might see new resolve. A huge win in West Virginia would not do much for the delegate count, but not much would at this point, unless Clinton won all six remaining primaries in the 80% range. But, a landslide win in West Virginia would give vitality back to the campaign, and would create momentum going into contests where she still has a chance to prove her electability case, and to keep her campaign alive long enough to see the resolution to the Michigan-Florida debacle.

I believe at this point, superdelegates are waiting for all the contests to play out. Howard Dean has stayed firm in his belief that all states should have their say, but that very shortly after all primaries are concluded, superdelegates should make their decisions known. I believe there is ample argument that it could still go either way. What matters at this point is two-fold: first, can Clinton keep her campaign alive long enough to outlive the cries to fold, and second, can the candidates keep their campaigns focussed on the issues and the full play-off instead of dissolving back into the bitter infighting of March and April? The media is (and has been) saying, "We need the black vote to win," and it's true. But, they also need the white vote, and Obama has not closed that deal yet. There are still runs to be scored. There is still a clock to run down. People like this contest, they enjoy the competition, and I see no real imperative for one or the other to call it quits this close to the end.