It Aint Over Til The Lady In The Pantsuit Sings

Here is what may be the final irony of the Democratic presidential contest: even though it appears Barack Obama has solidly won the nomination, Hillary Clinton can still make or break his candidacy. This puts her in a very precarious position, however, where she also stands a chance of ruining her own career. Clinton was unequivocally clear that she was making no decisions the night of the final primaries, and has remained officially mum so far today. She and Obama are both in Washington addressing the AIPAC conference followed by a stop in the Senate for a budget vote. No doubt there will be a private sit-down before the end of the day.

Clinton is not out of options, although many of them are undesirable. Regardless, she has the leverage to get just about any concession she wants. Here are a few:

The obvious, Obama offers Clinton the VP spot.

This would be the quick and dirty way to unify the party. There are negatives, but the positives may be found to outweigh them. The media is saying Bill Clinton is the major negative to that ticket. I believe it would be a mistake for Obama to let that sentiment get too much sunshine; starting a General Election campaign by publicly insulting a vastly popular former President -- the only Democratic President in this generation or more -- would be toxic. I believe the true negative is the combined fear that a) Clinton would be too ambitious an understudy and b) she could dampen Obama's liberal image. The positives of course are a much easier path to wooing Clinton's supporters, chiefly the blue collar, women, Latinos and probably the Jewish vote, too. Clinton's voting coalition of formidable, and many of them prefer her not because she is her, but because Obama is him.


Take it to the Convention

Admittedly, this is one of those undesirable options. Regardless of that, Clinton is fully within her rights to continue her campaign and instigate a floor fight. Her claim to a popular win is solid, and while the Democratic nomination is based on delegates, this does not mean she cannot contest the seating of them, and attempt to sway the Convention in her favor. Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean have long been trumpeting the "will of the people" which is, in reality, quite a different thing from the the will of the state parties that assign delegates. In more than one state Clinton won the popular vote, but Obama picked up more delegates, and the argument that this is contrary to the will of the people is certainly valid. Of course the negatives of this are very real, very dangerous, and make the likelihood of a Convention battle very low. I believe Clinton knows this, and unless there is some extremely compelling reason to throw down the gauntlet, she will not take this road.


Run as an Independent

Another undesirable and highly unlikely option, but one that has floated around enough that it should get some discussion. Doing this would most likely accomplish only one thing: securing the Presidency for John McCain. It would also destroy Clinton politically unless by a true miracle she won. Now, that would be history. Clinton has a huge political machine at her disposal, and stands to be the unrivaled superpower of the Senate as it stands now, but all of that is beholden to the Democratic party, and dyed in the wool Democrats would desert her in droves. Clinton's appeal in this area (right leaning Dems and left leaning Republicans) would be much better used to cut into McCain's support base than to launch an Independent campaign.


Harness the momentum of her campaign and use it

I know that sounds vague, but there are many ways she could do this. Obama has already mentioned Vice President, Health Secretary, and any number of other potent roles inside his cabinet. Clinton could easily pitch for President Pro Tempore of the Senate, or might even be able to muscle her way to Senate Majority Leader. Secretary of State might not be such a bad place for her, either. No matter what she does, as long as she uses her visibility and leverage to help get Obama elected, she will heal whatever divisions are seen between her and Obama. There is also the rumor that she may consider running for Governor in New York State, although I find that the most unlikely of her general options. Clinton before anything else, is a Washington Politician, and is very cognizant of the spotlight being brighter in the capital. She is a big game hunter in that way, enjoys her work, and knows she has the most influence right where she is.

If she wants to survive politically, and keep her hopes alive for another Presidential run in 2012 or 2016, she needs to navigate carefully. If Obama loses in November, with or without her on the ticket, the main question will be, "Was it Hillary's fault?" John Kerry tried to blame John Edwards for his loss in '04, and even though that is likely not true, it cast a long shadow over Edwards. One thing to watch for: who delivers the keynote address at the Convention this year? I'd lay money on Clinton; in fact, I would bet it will be very high on her list of demands preceding a concession-endorsement of Obama.