Democrats Need To Refocus

Obama overtook Clinton for the first time on February 5th, but within a passable distance. He then capitalized on that momentum and hammered out 13 more consecutive wins. Clinton made an impressive comeback, carved out a unique voting coalition and still managed to seriously challenge Obama, but ultimately lost. I believe Barack Obama's campaign is suffering from what I would now call Super Tuesday Syndrome. Hillary Clinton never quite recovered from it.

I think Obama and his campaign believed the Democratic Convention would be the high point of the election until the actual vote. I think everyone thought that. The "Convention Bump" would cement Obama's lead over an already lagging McCain, and the 60-day race after the GOP Convention closed would be flushed with more grand speeches, paparazzi flooded events and the biggest trouble would be winning over Clinton supporters. Then, John McCain and the GOP did the unthinkable and dared to compete. It is obvious that Obama's campaign has not come up with a strategy to deal with Palin yet.

The introduction of Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket deployed the dangerous tactic of contrast. Say what you will about VP candidates having "little effect" on presidential elections. Say what you will about Palin. The fact is, she was the game changer and Obama fell right into her trap. As soon as he first spoke out in protection of her family's privacy and then followed with a direct attack on her, rather than the GOP platform or McCain, Obama has been contrasted to Palin. This did more than render moot the "experience" argument. It made a presidential candidate appear less prepared for the office than the opposing vice-presidential candidate. There is little doubt people remember how condescending Obama was toward Hillary Clinton during the primaries, in spite of the "healing" of the Convention. Now that Obama has engaged Palin in a media crossfire debate he better be careful not to make any women mad. If he was smart, he never would have gone after her directly in the first place. That is supposed to be Joe Biden's job.

In spite of the Democratic conceit that all women are Democrats, and that all women are pro-abortion, it's just not true. Sarah Palin has re-energized female voters. She has perhaps tapped a coalition of female voters who weren't voting for Clinton in the first place. Naysayers begone, Palin hit so many marks for McCain it is likely she will outshine him throughout the campaign. She is already being credited with sparking full-scale culture war by simple virtue of her candidacy. She contrasts McCain in a very obvious way through their age disparity, but she also contrasts Clinton very sharply. She's young, sharp tongued, proud of her middle America accent, and she wears skirts above the knee. She's also given a rise to men. Male voters supporting McCain, that is. She's very likely to put a shine on the Rust Belt, particularly if she shows off her equally handsome union-member husband. Todd Palin is also a commercial fisherman in a very competitive market ripe with politics and coalition building. Add to this superstar image the fact that she has successfully repudiated all attacks against herself so far, and isn't afraid to go for the traditional VP-attack-dog role with gusto... it's poison for Obama unless the make a dramatic shift of strategy.

Palin doesn't have any of the "we're on the same side" levies holding her back like Clinton did. The same strategies that worked against Clinton will not work against Palin. Also, Palin is not the presidential candidate, and Obama and the media would be smart to remember that as well. John McCain is an accomplished obfuscationist. Look how well he concealed the Palin pick, even though his interest in her was plain if anyone had looked. Look how easily he yanked the rug out from under Change We Can Believe In. John McCain is at his best when he is free to act unscrutinized, and he uses his own image and his own detractors to provide cover. I can't stress enough, over and over, that underestimating John McCain has been the hubris of this entire campaign since the early stirrings of the campaigns nearly two years ago.

I think it's fair to say we would not be in this pickle if Hillary Clinton were anywhere on the Democratic ticket. Reports from the Democratic campaign indicate the Clinton donors did not open their wallets as wide as expected, and Obama is now out fund raising in California and other deep blue states where he is not needed. Meanwhile McCain is flush with cash from the influx of public funding, which he chose to stick with in spite of loud claims that Obama would destroy him financially. McCain's campaign currently has more cash on hand, according to CNN, and McCain himself is busily campaigning in critical swing states, drawing Obama-sized crowds of over 10,000. McCain is also enjoying front runner status now, which we all know has its pitfalls, a lesson bitterly learned by Clinton, and which Obama is getting his first true taste of.

For all the chirping about McCain taking a page from the Clinton playbook, McCain did what Obama should have: picked a truly electrifying VP candidate, a word that cannot in anything other than jest be applied to Joe Biden. Failing that, some serious nose to the grindstone needs to be applied to the Democratic strategy. Hillary Clinton and other key Democrats are correct to urge the campaign to focus on McCain and the issue. Bring the debate back to the economy. Get the Democratic Congress (which has a lower approval rating than the current President) on top of a popular energy bill. Get off the defensive. Stop reacting, and stop contributing to the Palin Storm by dignifying it, by validating it. Democrats and the liberal media have fallen into a cult of personality trap with Palin, and unfortunately, Obama has facilitated just that kind of political climate.

Barack Obama has had his Super Tuesday Moment. We'll see how he adapts. He has certainly shown adaptability before, and to much success. Hopefully he can recover from this as well.