One state sounds doable to me

The GOP Convention ended two weeks ago, the Democratic Convention three. Both campaigns got a bounce. I believe it is fair to say Obama's bounce was about 6 points, which is great for a candidate who was already in the lead. McCain hit back quickly with the Palin announcement, followed by the GOP Convention, which managed to pull off a strong, clear, popular message: "change" too much for you? How about some "reform" instead. Tastes great, less filling. What bounces up, must bounce down (or else it's a "gain.") So, as Obama's bounce was dropping, McCain's was on the way up. McCain got about a 10 point bounce from his Convention, which was the bigger point-wise, but which only lifted him to where Obama was during the summer: ahead by only 4-5 points. Both candidates broke the 50 percentile mark for the first time after their respective Conventions, both have fallen below it again since. Obama has presently regained his front-runner status, but by a negligible margin. According to Jay Cost's Horserace Blog: The State of the Race, McCain solidified his electoral base, and both benefited from Independent / Undecided voters, of which there are still a significant percentage, around 8%. As I see it, the presidential contest is still looking the same on the electoral map, with a few unusual swing states, as it did in June. Obama is still winning by a razor's margin, giving McCain a huge opening: all he has to do is win one more state and he will be the true front-runner again. The same goes for Obama, who would benefit greatly from a red-state nab. One state sounds doable to me.

But what state?

I previously predicted Virginia could go to Obama, which would do a lot to cement his hold on the electorate. That kind of "upset" would be a real gain, and would signal the heavy kind of break toward Obama we saw in the primaries over and over again. But, that is not happening, and instead we are seeing the same old electoral projections we see every year, and the same pattern of the last three elections (including this one): the Democrat is leading up to the election week, then when the mud slinging gets thick, the Republican pulls ahead again. Virginia is polling back toward McCain again, and I don't see it going back. I could end up eating crow and my own words, but I doubt it. According to Real Clear Politics, the toss-up states are: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and Nevada. New Hampshire will almost certainly go to Obama, as will Michigan. Wisconsin and Minnesota are also in the bag for Obama. Indiana will go to McCain easily, unless Obama really sures up his base in the rust belt, which wouldn't be a bad idea, but I'm not sure the campaign can muster that. They have better means of getting the voter coalition they need than by waging war on red states. Colorado will go to Obama and Nevada has been trending toward McCain all along. 6 of the 10 toss-up states, NH, PA, OH, MI, IA and NV, are all states Obama lost to Hillary Clinton and her direct pitch to the working class (noting that Obama "didn't campaign" in Michigan.) And, three of those six, PA, OH, and MI are considered "must haves" for a solid win.

That leaves Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Pennsylvania may well be the hinge of the election this fall. The Keystone state is not as Blue as it looks. In 7 out of the last 10 national elections, Pennsylvania has gone to the winner. Kerry in '04, Gore in '00 and Humphrey in 1968 are the exceptions. It is assumed Pennsylvania is Blue because Democrats have carried it in the last 2 elections, and because Bill Clinton reclaimed PA from the Republicans in the 90's. History tells us a different story. Democrats have carried PA in 5 of the last 10 elections, and Republicans have carried PA in 5. The GOP also carried PA for the most consecutive terms as the incumbent party's president at 3, while only Bill Clinton carried PA as the incumbent for Democrats twice. Pennsylvania could go either way, history favors it going to the winner, and the winner of PA will be the candidate who makes the strongest pitch to Independents / Undecideds and to the Working Class and Women, who represent the major bloc of PA voters overall. Pennsylvania is a very educated state, but that contributes to the amount of independent voters. Incidentally, Clinton also crushed McCain in Pennsylvania head-to-heads to the tune of 72 points and Obama by 24. She did it by focusing her entire campaign's resources on the state, and on the Economy. This was also the site of her first "great" speech of the primaries with the thunderous applause when she said, "...who lift their little girls on their shoulders and whisper in their ears, 'see, you can be anything you want.'" Her entire victory speech focused on the Working Class, jobs and the economy. If McCain can stage a serious competition in Pennsylvania, and stage a blue-state grab, Obama would be in a lot of trouble. He would have to stage a similar upset, and take a big state like Ohio. Ohio is to the GOP as PA is to the Democrats. It has been Blue 5 out of 10 elections and Red 5, and has gone to the winner in every election of the last 10.

The onus is on McCain to make gains. If the election were today I believe Obama would just barely squeak out a win, by 8 electoral votes. That means McCain could scoop up a couple small states, and still afford to launch a major offensive in Pennsylvania. If he puts Obama on the defensive and corrals him into small scraps for states like Nevada and Colorado, I would be watching for a now-trademark McCain sneak attack. Obama probably could compete in Virginia still, but it would be a calculated gamble. The wisdom of that is "above my pay grade." As the race stands now, Obama has to hold his ground and work whatever true advantages he has.

I have already said that I believe there is serious Buyer's Remorse over Obama, which I think accidentally slipped out of Joe Biden's mouth last week when he said Hillary Clinton would have been a stronger pick than him, describing her as "qualified to be President of the United States." That comment, at a time when Obama's qualifications were being criticized again must have been the topic of more than one hostile phone call. At any rate, I think the underlying cause of this Buyer's Remorse is the question: what happened to that Obama? The one who crushed the "inevitable" front-runner? The Obama who had so many surprise wins he seemed unstoppable? Where's he? Obama needs to get his game back. But, McCain also needs to step up to the plate again, too. Both candidates are experiencing a slump. That slump will begin to sort itself out soon enough with the debates coming up, and the flurry of advertising that will hit the airwaves in the next three weeks or so. Regardless, both candidates need to sharpen and flush out their message, get their faces out there, and start using their attack dogs, the VP candidates.