Some campaign advice for Sarah Palin

Contact matters. McCain-Palin took overwhelming margins where exit polls report the campaign directly contacted them. But, McCain had less money, a lot less money. And, by the end, they were making strategic decisions based on stretched resources.

Labor backed Obama, big. John McCain was seen as a friend to business, but not to unions -- not to Joe the Plumber. Say it with me: Todd Palin. If there was ever a poster boy for the guy next door, there he is. He's handsome, wholesome, a commercial fisherman and a world champion athlete. And he holds the baby while his wife waves to screaming crowds.

Women. Women. Women. Sarah Palin is already co-opting Hillary Clinton's "America's best days are ahead of us," and, "that highest, hardest glass ceiling," and other language. SarahPAC? Come on. (Can you say HillPAC for Republicans?) I absolutely agree with the many, many voices that said, "Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton." And if it were Palin vs. Clinton in 2012, Hillary would smoke her. But it's not going to be, at least, barring some really serious chicanery or tragedy. Say what you will, but many Clinton supporters were behind her because she was a woman, and the appearance of another viable female candidate for President will draw women to the GOP ticket. Mark my words.

Gov. Palin needs to back off abortion. Note, she has already done so in a token fashion (possibly more than token, really) by appointing a pro-choice judge to the Alaska Supreme Court. If she's smart, she will come to the campaign with the attitude that choosing life is still a choice. I don't believe abortion will be the line in the sand anyway. But, if she really wants to throw a curve ball, and get some more moderates back on the Red side, that will be a way to do it. The party faithful will always be the party faithful, and they would (at this point) accept a pro-choice Republican if it meant getting back into the White House. Again, you just watch. I could be dead wrong on this one, but I'll stick to my guns for now: Sarah Palin will soften her rhetoric on Roe vs. Wade.

Energy independence. Alaska is already ahead of the curve on this to begin with. If Gov. Palin spends some time over the next few years really pushing for energy innovation in Alaska, and it works, she will have a leg up in the energy / environment debate. Again, this would be another one, if she's smart, that she will come into the campaign praising Democrats for, and promising more of the same. By the end of the 2008 campaign, both Obama and McCain were offering a "kitchen sink" theory on energy solutions; within a few years we'll see how well it's going, and the GOP will jump all over it. With an energy-savvy candidate on the ticket, they just might get the lead on that alone.

"We will make them famous." The GOP co-opted the Democrat's message in 2008. It was too little too late by the time McCain started trumpeting reform, but that dog is getting its day now. Like it or not, Gov. Palin does have a record on reform, a good one. Yes, she has some regressive points too, but you really can't shake a stick at the courage and success with which she shook the tree in Alaska. And a lot of rotten fruit fell off. If she's smart, she will come into the campaign praising Obama's government cleanup efforts, and promising to do more of the same. Again, overwhelmingly in the 2008 exit polls, voters (particularly critics of Congress) broke for McCain. They wanted to see a backhand slap from the White House, and Sarah Palin is possibly more capable of projecting that promise than McCain was.

I told you so on bailouts. So far the government interventions in multiple financial firms is turning into a huge ballooning mistake, gaffe after gaffe. Even if it does eventually pan out for the good, public opinion is not good and will not be.

The age differential will be gone. Something that did hurt McCain, which was entirely beyond his control, was age. People thought he was too old, and there was some concern that Palin was not qualified. However, there was quite a bit of concern that Obama wasn't qualified, either. Something I found quite interesting was the reality vs. what was spun out: by the strictest definition of "executive experience," between Obama, Biden, McCain and Palin, by a long shot, Sarah Palin had and will still have the most "experience" of any candidate. Regardless, in 2012, age will not be a factor, as President Obama and Gov. Palin are both in their 40's. And, barring a huge, impeachable bungle, Barack Obama rendered the experience argument moot, at least for the time being.

In spite of the Tina Fey inspired popular opinion, Palin did not hurt McCain. According to every exit poll, the people who said the Palin pick influenced their vote, broke hard for McCain, 10-15 points or more. If Sarah Palin hurt McCain's campaign, it was because people wanted Palin instead.

Lastly, the thing that in reality most hurt McCain and the GOP overall in 2008, will be gone: the comparisons to Bush. Buh-bye. The incumbent party (Democrats) will be on trial in 2012, and they will be the ones accused of offering "more of the same." The First 100 days isn't even over yet, and they've already got some 'splainign to do. If my warning that Obama is going to get "Carterized" comes true, it's more trouble in Changeland.