"I have no interest in running for president," until it's time to announce again, that is

David Paul Kuhn has an article at RealClearPolitics discussing Hillary Clinton and 2016. Here: Hillary 2016? It's a worthwhile read.

Here is my response. Discuss amongst yourselves.

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There are many things that could happen before 2012. Barack Obama hasn't even been president a year yet.

I agree with most of what you say here. I think it is obvious beyond most other things that Clinton has not taken her sites off the Oval Office. She is very conscious of her legacy, and that alone means no achievement is really off the table. I also agree with several who have commented on the DNC's meddling in the delegate process -- under extreme pressure from Nancy Pelosi, which is the part that no one seems to want to talk about.

The part I think you might be -- might be -- wrong about is Biden. I'm not so sure how much Biden and Obama like each other. I think the vitriol that was planted on Clinton really came from Biden. Note that both Joe Biden and John Edwards made public comments that seemed as though they would endorse Clinton after they both bowed out of the primaries. And both of them held multiple private meetings with Clinton before accepting similar invitations from Obama. Joe Biden was placed on the Democratic ticket as VP to neutralize him. The office of VP is little more than a place holder for someone like Biden, who has already had a distinguished career and is easily seen as an "elder statesman." He was the Token Old White Guy.

I think it is a possibility that Clinton may well take what I am going to call the "Condi Path." There was significant pressure for Dick Cheney to resign, and he was about to until GWB insisted he stay. And when it was all going down, I feel fairly confident that Condi Rice would have stepped up to the VP slot. And, I think the same thing might happen with Clinton. I think Joe Biden might step down. I think it may have been discussed as early as last summer 2008. I believe there is a very distinct possibility that Hillary Clinton will be on the ticket as VP in 2012, or even sooner if Biden keeps gaffing his way around Af-Pak. It could easily be cloaked in "personal reasons," so everyone's dignity remains intact.

Hillary Clinton is experiencing a career high, both in position and approval ratings, that she has in essence, never seen before. We've seen from her Senate campaigns that she is capable of pulling together a landslide win. And she has already set the precedent in terms of women running for President. No doubt, anyone who thought a woman couldn't be taken seriously as a presidential candidate ate a healthy slice of crow last year. Her supporters are as loyal and as ardent as they ever were, and she is likely attracting even more. And, in truth, she has a broader support base in Washington than Obama, with the exception of last year when the country was swept up in the wave of electing a black man. What I mean by that is: Hillary Clinton has the support of the Democratic caucus -- they only closed doors and wallet to her when it became obvious Obama was going to be the nominee, but they would come running right back to her if it was the other way around, particularly now. And, all along, she has had maintained higher approval ratings with Republicans, who view her as more moderate and more bipartisan that Obama.

As for 2012. No incumbent president in the modern day has ever not run for re-election. However, keep in mind that Obama has already said he is willing to be a one-term president to get health care reform -- Hillary Clinton's #1 legislative agenda for the last 15 years or more -- signed into law. I believe he is a shrewd enough politician that he could be convinced to step aside for a stronger Democrat in 2012 if his approval ratings stay consistently below 50% for the second half of his first term -- and if there were another Democrat whose approval ratings were trampling his. Ala Clinton. I also believe another Democrat could challenge him and win in the primaries, but I doubt it would be Clinton who would do such a thing. I believe she would only launch a 2012 campaign with the explicit blessing of Obama, or in his absence altogether.

Regardless, Hillary Clinton remains a strong possible for either 2012 or 2016. Head-to-head polling for the General Election last year was also telling. While Obama pulled strongly ahead of McCain in the polls in the 11th hour (he was ahead most of the time before, but by only a few points, and McCain catapulted ahead of him in late summer,) Clinton vs. McCain showed a strong win for Clinton consistently. Polling continued for Clinton even after the nomination went to Obama, and a poll I saw as late as October last year showed Clinton demolishing McCain, while Obama was still hanging on by his teeth. And once the actual votes were in, while it appeared to be a "landslide" for Obama, and much was made about his "mandate" (which is already crumbling as he alientates both sides of the Democratic spectrum) the reality is, he only beat McCain by 2 percentage points. In spite of what the media spin doctors said, it was a very close race.

Note also that Clinton's campaign infrastructure is still up and operating. Of course this is because her campaign debt is "not paid off." I find this claim questionable. I remember early in summer seeing a headline saying the Clinton campaign debt was paid off. Then all of a sudden it was "less than a million." I think it behooves her to keep her campaign operation operating, and the best way to justify that is to maintain the appearance that they are still trying to settle debt from a prior run. But she has more staff, more money, and more activity going on than is really warranted in an off-cycle year. Another thing to watch: if she accepts the Chairmanship of the DLC (which I'm sure would be hers for little more than the asking) that is a sure sign of another presidential run. And, were she to run again, she would have a shield / justification she did not have in 2008: she could easily portray herself as the "reluctant candidate," saying she didn't want to run again, but the public called her to serve, etc.

I believe there are a good number of people who not only wish Hillary Clinton was president, but who believe she would be doing a better job than Obama. And I believe those numbers are increasing, not decreasing. She faced a good deal of skepticism, misogyny and carry-over animosity from Bill in 2008, which I think she has effectively conquered now. By 2012 or 2016 she will have a solid executive career of her own, an even wider constituency, and a track record that was not formed on the coat tails of a man. If she can keep her approval ratings high -- in the high 50's or 60's -- I believe there is little doubt she will run again. Seldom do we see a SecState who maintains independent approval ratings from the President. Condi Rice is a prime example -- she was soaring until Dubbya took a nose dive -- in fact, I am sure GW Bush is the reason she was not selected as McCain's running mate. If Clinton can maintain her own image, her own numbers, and her own constituency, she will be back on the campaign trail at some point. Perhaps the appearance that she is being sidelined by Obama (which is not true -- I believe it is to keep Obama from seeming like her apprentice) is actually helping her maintain autonomy. It could be good.