Behind the Lobster Curtain: Maine Predictions

Caucusing in Maine is so convoluted it is almost mystical. The weather is cold and unpredictable. Maine's 34 delegates have not been subject to a poll since October. The two Democratic front-runners have deployed powerful proxies to the state, with only scant personal appearances. The sharp focus on Maine politics feels like an invasion in a very private state.

Democrats overall have deep inroads in the Northeast. In Maine, home or retreat to many presidential families, the opinion of a president matters. Equally, in a state thriving with private and state colleges, young voters are listening. Maine is a working class state, and a very woman-friendly state politically. Let's not forget Margaret Chase Smith. Currently, the state has two powerful female legislators in office, one of them a former first lady of Maine. The state is about as white as a state gets, at roughly 97% white according to the 2000 Census, with women just over the edge at 52% of the population. Maine is not closed minded though, having had 2 Independent governors who were both wildly popular, and being one of the first states to defend equal rights for women, blacks, gays and to adopt pro-environment policy. Demographically, that is about as flat a playing field as you can hope for.

Maine should be Hillary Country. Obama has suffered in this region of the country. In spite of endorsements and poll spikes, the Illinois Senator has only won Connecticut, while Clinton has swept the rest of New England, where she is predicted to win in all three remaining contests(Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont.) Governor John Baldacci (D-ME) has endorsed Senator Clinton, although none of the superdelegates from the state have publicly pledged (Baldacci is one of them.) One major newspaper, The Bangor Daily News published an article today not entirely endorsing Obama, but supporting him. This is no coincidence, as Obama's one campaign stop in Maine was in Bangor. Clinton has been to Maine twice, appearing in Orono and Lewiston, while Bill Clinton hit Portland, the largest population in the state. Chelsea Clinton is stumping hard for her mother, doing the college circuit in the state. She spoke at Bowdoin College last night, and has appearances throughout Sunday at Colby and the University of Southern Maine. Senator Kennedy (D-MA) is stumping for Obama, having already spoken in Portland, and is currently en route to Bates College.

This represents an interesting strategy by both Clinton and Obama. Chelsea is the Clinton answer to the youth vote. Kennedy is the Obama answer to institutional support. Could such a big state, with such a little vote, be the litmus test for both?

Let's look at the cons first. On the Clinton side, Chelsea does not draw the attention Kennedy does, and could be seen as a last ditch effort. On the Obama side, being from Maine, I can tell you people are asking, "What is a Massachusetts Senator doing campaigning in Maine?" While New England is seen as one cohesive unit, and it is in many ways, in Maine, they're called Massholes. It's a toss-up though. He is a Kennedy.

The pros are as follows. For Obama, there is his ability to sweep the vote. This has become such a dependable effect, that it cannot be ignored. Also, the Kennedy Factor cannot be ignored, although Clinton gave that assumption quite a blow in Mass. For Clinton, the women and the moderates are on her side. Maine has a reputation in both parties for being moderate; maybe ironic, all the major female figures in the state's politics have been Republican. The economic demographic is also on Clinton's side, so even if Kennedy can sway the rich Democrats away from her, that still leaves somewhere around 60% of state democrats on the Clinton side of the gymnasium.

So, what will happen in Maine?

Two major things. First, regardless of who wins, Maine is going to set the strategy of both campaigns for the rest of February and into March. Second, the likely winner will be Clinton. This is in keeping with the polls, the demographics, the endorsements, and most importantly, it is in keeping with Clinton's campaign record. If Clinton can pull of a comeback in Maine, this will help her in the rest of February, with upcoming contests where she is lagging. Lastly, a win in Maine would most likely silence the Kennedy camp; with Kennedy endorsements going to both campaigns already, if Clinton can pull off another win in Kennedy country, that issue might go away for her.

This is not the first time Maine has been important in national politics, and it will not be the last. This one came as a surprise, though. Only time will tell, but I am predicting a solid win for Senator Clinton.