A Definite Front Runner Desperately Needed

The 2008 Democratic primary, and the impending Presidential election in November are certainly getting interesting. The Republican race is wrapped up; John McCain has lashed his dogs and pulled so far ahead that only a miracle will change his lead. The irony here, is that the GOP doesn't seem to like McCain. Why? His appeal is so broad, he even pulls some Democratic voters to his cause. The Democratic race is so close, no one can call it accurately. According to the mainstream media outlets, Hillary Clinton pulled the majority of the popular vote on Feb 5th, but by such a small margin that it is only a technical win. Both Democratic candidates are now trying to cast themselves as the "underdog" because of the historic favor that usually goes to the perceived loser. That's the irony of the Dems: after a tooth and nail battle to be the uncontested winner, now they both want to be seen as the loser. Hillary Clinton is accomplishing this by letting it be known she is funding her own campaign to the tune of at least $5 million; Barack Obama is simply calling himself the underdog, although admittedly, up against the Clinton machine it is not hard to see him as the underdog.

The media and the polls are predicting a long, drawn out battle for the Democrats. The fear is that a brokered convention will come in August, or a "smoke filled room" where the elite echelon of the Democratic National Convention choose a candidate, casting a pall of gloom and corruption and old-school machinations over the entire Democratic campaign. Worse than that, a protracted race to determine a Democratic nominee is going to give the GOP a long lead to raise money, create strategy, and dig up dirt on the Dems. I am a stalwart Clinton supporter. Regardless of this, whoever gets the Democratic nomination will get my vote. And the sooner we know who that will be, the better.

At this point, the first next big race will be February 12th, when both Maryland and Virginia will weigh in with 99 and 103 delegates respectively. DC votes that day as well with 37 delegates. Between then and now we see 4 smaller states (politically) go to the polls with a total of 151 delegates split between: Louisiana, Nebraska, Virgin Islands and Maine. Then, on February 19th, Hawaii, Washington and Wisconsin jump on the wagon, representing 218 delegates all together. Overall, February is still holding 608 delegates to be awarded, post-Super Tuesday.

What does it mean? First of all, it means that if one or the other cannot secure a solid lead by Feb 19th, the next contest will be March 4th when the big boy states of Ohio and Texas cast their very significant votes. Second, it means that if one of them can secure a convincing win, we might see some cohesion in the nomination process. I don't think it can be stressed enough: the sooner the better. The Presidential race for the Dems needs as much lead time as it can get, and needs some breathing room to focus on the real competition: John McCain.

How it will play out is anyone's guess at this point. Clinton enjoys a very loyal and slowly growing support base, and is still maintaining her lead, if barely. One thing Clinton has shown is her ability to stage a comeback. After Iowa and South Carolina both, the New York Senator rallied huge victories that propelled her back into front-runner status. Clinton has also shown that her numbers don't vary much; she has maintained her place in the polls, as the preferred nominee, and in her demographic. For Barack Obama, we see that he is capable of marshaling huge voter turnouts in traditionally weak demographics: young voters and African-Americans. He has also supposedly out-financed Clinton by a large margin, which may or may not be true, but they certainly both want us to think so, for their own campaign reasons. The two are also trading campaign strikes: Clinton managed to pull off a major victory in "Kennedy country" in spite of Kennedy support of Obama, and Obama swept in and took quite a few women voters away from the Clinton "guaranteed" voter base.

Hillary Clinton has long been lauded as the "preferred candidate" of the Democrats. Barack Obama's stellar performance in the race has given her a run for her money, literally, to hold on to the that advantage. Decisive victories on February 12th, particularly in Virginia, would bolster this image for her again. No doubt a Virginia "comeback" would also help her secure the "underdog" image and the benefits it can bring, again ironic, considering a win would be required to do it.

Virginia does favor Clinton in the polls, but we have seen this pattern before: Clinton is the predicted front-runner by a long shot, then Obama closes the gap to near invisibility by the time it is all said and done, winning as often as not. The net result is a virtual tie, with more than half the available delegates already spoken for since Feb 5th. Can the Democrats weather this kind of storm? If this pattern continues, and the tie goes unbroken, a brokered convention is the ultimate outcome, and it is my opinion that this spells very bad news for either of them.

Florida may come into play again, but not in the traditional way. There are some early stirrings that a second vote may be called in Florida. Hillary Clinton took Florida by storm on January 29th, securing a major victory for herself. The problem: Florida's delegates were shut out by the DNC, punishing state democrats for holding an early primary. Traditionally, after all primaries are closed, the DNC Chair has allowed shut-out state's delegates to be seated. With 210 delegates, the inclusion of these results would greatly favor Clinton as it stands now. What wold happen if a new vote was called? Should a new vote be called? Hopefully not. Not only because of my personal preference, but simply because it should not be allowed. Re-voting won't be allowed in November. Re-voting was not allowed in Florida in 2000, a time when such a thing most likely should have been allowed. However, if it does happen, and the vote favors Clinton again, we might seem some movement toward a definite nominee. If Obama takes Florida in a re-vote, nothing really changes. The Clinton campagin would go wild over this, and a whole new Florida scandal would burst into the media, detracting from the real issue: getting a Democrat into the White House.

At this point, all we can do is watch. There is a one-week pause for both candidates to catch their breath and re-focus their campaigns. Both campaigns are deploying their efforts to big bloc states and working on positioning themselves for the next big battle. The best we can hope for is a definite win by one or the other. Any predictions at this point are moot, although my personal prediction record is fairly good. As of this time, there is no way to tell what will happen.