Clinton Takes The Day

So, my prediction was:

the likely outcome will be: Clinton 53% , Obama 47%

I was right on for Clinton, but it was closer to 44% of Obama, even less than I predicted.

I said:
To wrap up, my Super Tuesday prediction is that Hillary Clinton will come out on top. Her margin above Obama will likely fall in the area of 3-7%, very close.

Pretty much right on.

I also said:

I believe that if push comes to shove, the Superdelegates will weigh in before the need arises and will most likely favor Hillary Clinton, who is much more connected in the meta-levels of the Democratic party.

This seems to be true, as illustrated in Alabama where Obama won the primary by a rather wide margin, but Clinton is still picking up more delegates.


I said:
The Democratic nomination will still be up for grabs. There are some serious heavy-weight states after Super Tuesday that could really give one of the two a major lead. The states with over 100 delegates are: Texas (228, the big boy after California), Pennsylvania (188), Ohio (161), North Carolina (134), Virginia (101), and Washington, Maryland and Wisconsin should get honorable mention with 97, 99 and 92 delegates respectively.

Clinton is hanging on to a major lead in the polls in all of those states. As we have seen, and as Super Tuesday supports very well, Clinton is very capable of holding on to her numbers whereas Obama's ebb and flow of poll popularity has not shown anywhere near as much accuracy.

The nomination is most definitely still undecided. However, the race is still Hillary's. She performed even better overall than I expected, with the discouraging Obama gains in the Edwards Quits - Super Tuesday interim. Obama took more states, but Clinton pulled ahead in delegate count with wins in big states. The very good news is that this placed Hillary back in the lead of pledged delegated as well, putting the post-Feb 5th count at: 632 Clinton / 626 Obama; with projected superdelegates: Clinton 825 / Obama 732.

What next? Will the campaign drag on for months and turn into a mathematical race?

If Hillary Clinton adopts the tone of this video from New York as her new campaign demeanor, probably not. It seems she has taken the inside image coaching to heart, and if we see a softer, more approachable Clinton, she will wrap it up quickly. I doubt she will ever lose the "lecture style" oration completely, and maybe she shouldn't -- a dramatic shift in her demeanor could hurt her. But, it would be good to see the more human side more often. Obama has been riding on his image, whereas Clinton has depended on experience, name recognition and what is starting to show itself as a very dependable support base. Women over 45, and the 60+ demographic overall came through for her again. The Latin voice has also spoken loud and clear: Hillary is the true candidate for change.