In January 2.3 Million Democrats voted in the states of Michigan and Florida. If the primaries were being admitted to the delegate race by the DNC, the results would favor Hillary Clinton to the tune of 1.13 Million votes, and somewhere around 200 delegates. This would still leave Clinton and Obama in a close heat, with Obama still in the lead by a handful of delegates. What is clear is that if these delegates were allowed, and Clinton wins big in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, she will be the clear nominee, by May.
Ask John Kerry what 3 percentage points could mean. Ask Al Gore what 5 or 6 delegate votes could mean.
Excluding Michigan and Florida from the delegate count is the real "undemocratic" thing happening in this campaign. With both state's Democratic leadership issuing demands that they be allowed to participate, it seems impossible for the DNC to ignore. Barack Obama's campaign fears this inclusion because it would expose his "surge" as more of a splash and take a hungry bite out of his lead. Of course, Hillary Clinton's campaign wants the inclusion for the same reason. Regardless of either candidate's position on Michigan and Florida, one thing is clear: the popular opinion is shifting towards inclusion.
The DNC is saying that organizing re-votes in these states would be too costly to the Democratic Campaign overall, and at the same time issuing reassuring emails to Democrats saying that a brokered convention will not happen and a candidate will be selected well before August. Bill Clinton also told MTV that he believes a nominee will be identified by May. Hillary is already positioned to pick up the lion's share of the delegates between now and May 5th, and could retake the lead by over 100 delegates. If Michigan and Florida are included as is, and Clinton also sweeps Pennsylvania as expected, she could shut out Obama entirely. She could even do it without the contested states, although bigger victories than predicted would be required.
The "firewall" for Clinton has arrived. She is riding toward stellar victories, gaining in the polls and already seeing positive response to her freshly polished campaign. The claims from Barack Obama that Clinton "can't catch up" are already shot full of holes. His own presumptions may bite him yet. His revival-like campaign style is also losing its gloss. No matter how hard they try to spin it, it still looks like Obama is intimidated by having to face Clinton in a debate. Obama's senate record and dealings with campaign contributors are also being taken into serious consideration for the first time since summer. Maybe it finally paid off for Clinton to hammer on her policy statements for so long, in spite of the broken record it made her sound like. At long last, the same critical lens that has been keenly focussed on her is being turned back on her opponent. America's youth were listening, now everyone is listening.
No matter the result, this will be the most famous presidential campaign in history by January. Florida and Michigan should not be the states left out in the cold simply because the Democratic leadership of those states wanted to vote early. It was the state party leaders who picked the early dates, not the DNC, not the candidates, not the media. The votes should stand as they are; millions of Democrats voted their conscience, just like millions of others have and will, and they should have their voices heard. All predictions aside, all campaign wants and woes aside, excluding Michigan and Florida from the democratic process is, well, undemocratic.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Give Florida and Michigan Their Voice
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment