Back in late January 2006, I predicted (among other things) that Condoleeza Rice was going to present a major problem to Hillary Clinton's presidential bid. In early January 2008, I retracted this prediction, calling it "dead wrong." Now, it seems I might have been right after all. Secretary Rice is appearing in the news again, as a potential VP match with McCain. Even more so than if she were to run for president herself, Condi as a VP opponent could be just as bad or worse. There are others on the clipboard at McCain headquarters. Here's a pretty decent article discussing all the options that have been tossed around: Who should be McCain's running mate?. It makes sense for McCain to pick up Rice however, for a lot of reasons.
First of all, I don't think it's a coincidence that President Bush has tentatively agreed to endorse McCain, right on the heels of all the Condi talk. Bush likes and trusts Rice, and she above all has brought both dedication and vision to the Bush Administration. Bush has deployed Rice all over the world as his surrogate, making her one of the most powerful Secretaries of State in recent history. Sometimes it looks like Rice is dictating foreign policy, and she is definitely the voice of the Oval Office in Congress. Dick Cheney has done such a deplorable job that he would have resigned if Bush would have let him, and even then there were stirrings that Rice would be quickly given the nod to step up to the plate as his replacement.
Second, the obvious one. The Democrats have not settled on a candidate yet, but McCain knows he will be facing either a woman or a black man. With Condoleeza next to him on the presidential ticket, he's got both Democratic front runners covered. Obvious or not, it should be pointed out. While both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have done their best to keep gender and race out of the campaign, don't think for one second that McCain will be so respectful. The GOP is already throwing around Obama's middle name, Hussein. Picking up Rice not only gives McCain a balanced race/gender ticket to his Old White Man, it also panders to the "maverick" image he likes so much.
Lastly, and critical for McCain is GOP support. He scares conservatives. While the Arizona Senator has overwhelming popular support on the state / primary level, the GOP aristocracy fears him. Condoleeza Rice is a very popular Republican, and already a serious heavyweight. Pulling her onto the ticket will solidify conservative support of McCain. Not coincidentally, it will also forward Bush politics and agenda into the McCain scheme.
McCain / Rice is a terrifying prospect for America. Rice is already the current administration's sledgehammer abroad. She is pro-Iraq, which is also terrifying, considering McCain's trigger happy sentiments. Rice has developed an impressive resume of foreign affairs negotiations, and has met in person with world leaders continually since the mid-80's. She could use her international connections for good or ill, but under the direction of McCain, it will surely be aggressive and hostile. And, worst of all, she's very smart. She has been the counterbalance to Bush's apparent dullness, sharp witted and intelligent, eloquent and convincing. Paired with the very charismatic and equally intelligent McCain, the two would be tyrannical masterminds.
Rice is also a former Democrat, who defected to the GOP in 1982, but continued her ties to the Democratic party, advising Gary Hart in his 1984 primary campaign. McCain's "maverick" image is largely due to his liberal tendencies that have led him to align himself with powerful Democrats over the years. Although McCain denies it officially, it is known that he was so friendly with Senator John Kerry that Kerry offered him the VP slot more than once in 2004. Rice represents the ultimate in GOP loyalty, having the fervor of the converted; she cites civil rights violations and familial vendetta as her reasons for joining the Republicans. Couple her stalwart party loyalty with McCain's liberal appeal, and there is real trouble coming in November.
A McCain / Rice ticket could spell very bad news for either Democratic candidate. For Hillary, a considerable risk is the loss of Independents who are swayed primarily by gender, but prefer McCain's image. For Barack, Condoleeza represents a bite out of female and black votes, and McCain's impressive resume in government easily trumps Obama's junior record. The McCain / Rice ticket could easily solidify the GOP behind McCain, who seems to be facing his greatest challenges from inside the party. Short of a coup inside the RNC, McCain has the party nod as the nominee. With the nod from Bush, and endorsements from Guiliani and Romney, who appeals to the conservatives and the religious right, McCain's campaign is starting to resemble the elephant that symbolizes the GOP. With the addition of Rice to the ticket, a clear image of the GOP agenda would be guaranteed. Combine that with the easy liberal spins both embody, and the game is truly on.
The GOP surprised us all by getting organized first. As little time past as January, it looked like the Democrats were on a smooth slide toward Hillary Clinton, and the GOP race was a mess. At this point it is clear that McCain is done with the primary competition and has already started to campaign for President in truth. The last leg he has to sure up is Republican backing, making it very important who he gets on the ticket. This is where we will see brokering inside the Republican party; it's not a shoo-in for Rice, but she makes sense on many levels. I doubt we'll see a fellow candidate, past or present. I think MCain has had quite enough of them. Picking a governor would be an option, as there would be no Senate record to be attacked -- this is a strategy both Dems could consider, too. But, for McCain, I think that is not good enough. I believe he both wants and needs a big name beside him, but not one that will overshadow him, or make the GOP look desperate. Rice represents the best of both worlds: she sures up the competitive edge of the campaign, and brings strong conservative connections and proven loyalty.
Rice also represents continuity of the GOP domination of government since Reagan. She started her political career under Reagan in 1986, serving on the Council on Foreign Relations, then shortly thereafter as Special Assistant to the Director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In spite of her seeming retirement from government under Clinton, she never truly severed ties with Washington, and as soon as another Bush was back on the ticket, she jumped right back in. Her interest in high powered government placement, and her arguable expertise in foreign relations also suggests that she will not go away any time soon, vice president or not. The Vice President's chair is the natural next step for Condi, whose has been in the upper echelon of government for over twenty years, having reached her current peak at Secretary of State, an office that has often led to the presidency or vice presidency.
I'm not ready to predict all-in for Rice, but she seems like such a smart grab for McCain, he should be giving it very serious consideration.
Friday, February 15, 2008
McCain / Rice? It's On The Table...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment