Clinton-Obama Dream Ticket: is it a dream or a Dream?

"CLINTON WINS! As predicted for months, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama smashed Republican opponent Senator John McCain in a popular landslide. Record voter turnouts, over 200 million, gave Clinton-Obama a history making 65% of the popular vote. Senator John McCain is expected to concede speedily. Clinton and Obama have been vetted as the "power couple of the 21st Century," a sentiment they gave a humorous nod to in Clinton's victory speech. After what was widely seen as a bitter contest for the Democratic nomination in 2008, Clinton and Obama were originally seen as an impossible paring. In his own victory speech, presumptive Vice President Obama said, "A shared ticket was always on the table." The electoral college is expected to confirm Clinton as President-Elect in mid-December, and Clinton has already released her First Hundred Days Draft. This is a history-making campaign, the US electing the first woman President, and the first African-American Vice President, in American History. Clinton will be sworn in on January 20th, 2009, exactly two years after she announced her candidacy."

Wouldn't that be a wonderful headline to read?

Naturally, the Clinton campaign is already launching arguments for a shared ticket. Obama is still ahead, but Clinton has shown the strongest gains in all the critical areas: voter pickup, opinion swing, confidence. The fact that she won March 4th has completely revived the campaign. Smartly, Clinton is putting forth the electability argument now while she is showing some. There is a very big, indisputable fact on her side: "Ohio's demographics cause many to consider the state as a microcosm of the nation as a whole. A Republican presidential candidate has never won the White House without winning Ohio, and Ohio has gone to the winner of the election in all but two contests since 1892..." [Source: Wikipedia.org]. It is also widely predicted and mathematically likely that both Democrats are going to need superdelegate votes to secure the nomination. With John McCain absolutely certain as the Republican opponent, his strengths now become the main combatants of the Dems. Those strengths are National Security, Foreign Policy, and Experience. McCain may swing the experience argument, ironically.

Obama's continued argument that Clinton should drop out because she can't win enough delegates sounds hollow even coming from him. The likelihood of Obama delivering a knockout now is almost vanished. The momentum Clinton is drawing from last night's wins is already an audible thunder. She proved her campaign is still alive in every way from a million-dollar-a-day fund raising blitz, to huge last minute gains based on debate performance, and giant confidence votes. She dismissed the rumor that Obama was taking Latinos from her, and regained the lions share of women. The working class spoke as well and said, loud and clear, "Vote Hillary!" The loyalty argument has been avoided up to this point because, frankly, it makes Clinton supporters look mean spirited, but March 4th exit polls may well put a much better spin on it. Clinton beat Obama soundly in voter loyalty, and can easily demonstrate that more Obama supporters would readily support Clinton than the other way around. Clinton also still holds the lead in superdelegates, with a 20 point lead over Obama, versus his 11 point lead in pledged delegates. If this trend continues, and it could, Clinton could easily cash in on momentum to advocate for superdelegate support.

Regardless of all this math, imagine it. The two really are a dream team. They have polarized each other so much that they have become ideal opposites. While statistics are not on the side of a vice president being elected to the Oval Office, Obama-mania is and will remain a very big asset. The sentiment that we can have two history-making Presidents if it is done in the right order is gaining more validity. If Clinton managed to secure the next 8 years, Obama would still have a compelling campaign for 2016: first black president, first two-time Democratic White House in modern history, and he would have time and ample opportunity to completely dismiss any arguments about lack of experience. The age argument is going to come into it, too. Obama will only be 54 in 2016, easily spun as Clinton's "protegee" or "natural successor." Another point to consider is the reality that the vice presidency holds no interest for Clinton. This argument has been used to make her look greedy for a win or that her judgment is in some way clouded. I would say that this makes her look very clear: she is only interested if she is on top of the ticket, an attitude that no doubt worked very well in McCain's favor this year. Being seen as 100% focussed on winning the general election is going to be very good for Clinton.

Clinton did not strike a knockout, but maybe she did. Obama also didn't make any major inroads toward a win, either. Narrow or not, Clinton managed to pull off a delegate gain, and that says something. What her campaign has accomplished is the likelihood of a stalemate. A stalemate will mean a brokered convention. A brokered convention is seen as very bad for a Democratic win in November. Clinton has now maneuvered herself into a position to say, "We can settle this now, or we can see the contest through to the end, whatever that end is." She has already said she will continue her campaign to the end of the voting in June. I believe if she can do two things, she will still have the upper hand: 1) win big in Pennsylvania and 2) eat into Obama's lead in other contests.

Already, the media is moving away from the math arguments and looking at electibility. Less than 24 hours have passed since the primaries closed, and already Obama is losing his lead as perceived nominee, dropping 4 points since 3/3 polls, with Clinton gaining 2. New head-to-head polls are still sparse, but those also show Clinton gaining and Obama slipping against McCain. If this trend continues, that will drastically bolster Clinton's case. She can also now fairly remind us that she has been the assumed victor for 12 of the 14 months of the Democratic campaign thus far. A few critical voices are saying, "What constitutes a win?" I say winning means getting more votes than your opponent, and Clinton did that yesterday. Obama's campaign is visibly rattled by this, and they are trying to frame a positive response. It isn't working very well yet, with the two main claims by Obama, that he is still winning and that Clinton can't catch up, sounding petulant. In the four hours that I have been drafting this essay, Obama is dropping in the polls. The Clinton slide is fast and aggressive, and her campaign is capitalizing hungrily, after a month long drought. Clinton's words are coming back to haunt him, "Watch out. You have no idea what it's like until you've been through it." Obama dragged Clinton's image through the mud, and now it looks like she just stood up and brushed her shoulders off.

Let me say this: no matter how you cut it, Clinton-Obama would be a dream ticket. Clinton has been very smart to already hint at this herself. She has not openly called for it, which is also smart. Obama has openly called for her to quit the race, and if she is smart she will say, "Quit? Why? We can both stay in." It's a very smart tactic, and it is working already. I cannot stress enough, it is a dream ticket, and it would be a Dream, too. In a different race, these two would have joined forces a long time ago and immediately launched a joint platform against the Republicans. More and more pressure is building to get this contest out of the way, and get moving on the general election. Clinton may in fact be able to force the issue by refusing to withdraw. Comparisons to Huckabee have been mooted. Huckabee quickly conceded as soon as McCain got the delegates needed to win. The Democrats are still facing a delegate deadlock, the comparisons are no longer valid, nor were they ever in truth. In contrast, Obama-Clinton would be an equally powerful ticket, but that is merely a dream, as Clinton's willingness to accept the #2 slot is pretty much out. Arguments about party support aside, this still lends to Clinton getting it. We need a win in November more than we need to be forced to choose between two hugely popular candidates. Get them together now, and get on the road to the White House. I believe if Clinton wins Pennsylvania by even a few points, it will really be on the table. And, I think Obama would go for it.

No matter what happens, this race has been exciting. I still believe Hillary Clinton will be the 44th President of the United States, and March 4th votes agree with me. Clinton did exactly what the pundits were saying she needed, including her own husband and chief supporter: win Texas and Ohio. The Obama Factor in the voting mechanics was challenged. Clinton outperformed expectations, got a huge momentum burst, and came out looking more qualified, with two more big-state wins, and a small state win in a flatter playing field than Obama's Vermont win. The Ohio argument is very compelling. The swing state argument is very compelling. The last minute burst of support is very compelling. Clinton is also appealing to the remaining contests in 12 more states, saying she is a voice for those who have been ignored. These contests are important, she is saying, "Let them be heard." This is a very smart tactic in a campaign that has had its core fairness challenged. Also, that argument is naturally swept under the carpet if Obama were to concede and take the VP slot. There is no way Clinton "has to" concede now, because it would look like she was bullied into it, and would turn the tables on Obama, making him look "willing to do anything to win." Undeniably, Clinton passed her firewall, and did so very soundly. It's been said many times, but never count out a Clinton. This will very likely be a campaign slogan again.

Hillary's new urbane image is working too. While I have continually railed against media coverage of Clinton's hair, makeup and clothes as invalid, maybe it isn't. Ever since Jack Nicholson said Hillary Clinton was sexy, I think it has mattered. In the last two weeks, Hillary's hair has gotten blonder, her makeup softer, her clothes tighter. Hillary does have an okay body for a 61 year old woman, and I believe pressures to be seen as "young" and "edgy" have sent Hillary into Chelsea's closet. I noticed that Chelsea has ditched the jeans and Gap sweaters for her mother's business suits as well. Really, it's like Hillary and Chelsea traded rooms or something. While I am aware that these image analysis are more like discussions on E!News than on CNN, don't discount the power of image.

I believe that Oprah Winfrey hit Hillary hard with her Obama endorsement, and she did so mainly through image. The Winfrey endorsement was the beginning of Hillary's downward slide in the image / perception department. No doubt Winfrey's endorsement was timed politically, only 3 days after Edwards suspended his campaign, and the scrabble for Edwards endorsers was hot. Hillary, hard up for convincing endorsements, went the populist route too, and naturally went for the parody endorsement. Something very smart about this was her ability to make fun of herself, something that would be much riskier for Obama. Clinton comes off looking more confident for it. Tacit acceptance that she is already known for her bad traits makes her look more open as well. Hillary has suffered some of the most harsh criticisms of any public figure, ever since the 90's; she is used to it, steeled against it already. That is a very compelling argument for campaign fortitude.

Obama is going to suffer from reverse momentum as well. Watch for this one: Obama needed the Edwards sluice and had to outspend Clinton 2-to-1 to take the lead over her, and now Clinton has come back against him twice, and proved her dominance in big states and swing states, critical elements of a general election win. This time there were no tears to attack, either. Another exit poll result shows very favorable views of Clinton's performance in recent debates. She is picking up leads in very key areas used to determine electibility. It should not be dismissed that even though Obama is a gifted orator, people still think Clinton debates better.

A final comment should be about money. The news keeps saying Obama "might report" a $50 million dollar month in February, trumping Clinton's $35 million. If it's true, why hasn't he? Because she beat him, even though he outspent her. If you look at campaign finance, available here you will see that Obama has around $6 million earmarked for the general election, where Clinton has $20 million. Both of them have outspend McCain by nearly $100 million dollars, $200 million combined. Financially, McCain does not stand a chance against either of them at this time. Of course, this will change, and McCain is going to see a huge flush of cash from the Republicans, who smartly save their financing for the general election. But, that means that preparing for the general election is becoming a critical issue all over the white board in campaign meeting rooms across all three campaigns. Financially, Clinton is over 300% more prepared than Obama for the general election. Clinton also enjoyed a very convincing win in Ohio, even though Obama greatly outspent her there. Last minute fund raising also saved Clinton in Texas, allowing for behemoth organizing efforts in the last 48 hours before the primary. Clinton also set up a calling network via her website that allowed supporters to call Ohio voters from their computers.

Whoever is running the show over at Camp Clinton in the last two weeks has really raised the bar. Terry McAuliffe? Ace Smith? Maggie Williams? Maybe Hillary herself has taken a stronger stance on how to play it. Obviously, her surrogates were screwing it up until not too long ago. Bill has been buried, Hillary's image is remade, negative attacks on Obama are paying off, and the media is fawning over her. The Clinton-Obama ticket is all over the news. I say, why not? What's wrong with taking a win-win scenario for both candidates? Obama could only gain from it, and Clinton would be a good president. Combining her expertise in the ring, and his ability to inspire, and McCain might as well concede now. Vote Hillary!