The Comeback Kid, Part 2: Clinton Wins!

I'm sure Tina Fey is aware of the double entendre of her SNL quip, "Bitch is the new black!" Fey also said that it was "about time" we had a woman in the White House, and appealed directly to Ohio and Texas voters, saying it was "not too late." Call it unofficial if you want, but that sounded like an endorsement to me, containing most of the critical elements, except for, "I'm Hillary Clinton, and I approved this message." I'd also argue that Clinton did give that sound byte this past Saturday, when she appeared live after a very pro-Clinton skit. Whether it was 2 consecutive weeks as the leading sketch on the new season of SNL, or overall performance in recent debates, or scare tactics as Obama has implied, the Comeback Kid is back.

Little ago as this morning, pundits were saying, "Clinton has to make big wins to stay in the race." Even though it is close, the overall result is still for Clinton, even with Obama's single win in Vermont. Let's start with Vermont, because I think it is a very lopsided win for Obama. Exit polls show that rich, highly educated liberals dominated the polls. This is so far off the national averages, there is no way it can be seen as a strong indicator of much, except at face value. Rich, highly educated liberals in small states like Obama. I wouldn't wave that flag for too long. I don't mean to be sarcastic, but really, this is the leisure class of the democratic party, who are not concerned with economic effects on themselves personally, already have health insurance and fat retirement accounts, and likely would be on the short end of the stick under Clinton's tax policies. They have leisure to care about loftier things.

Let's talk about the exit polls. I think there is a fair argument that Clinton has retaken the Latino vote. There is an equal argument that she may have at least regained ground with women, and of course, she is still the champion for the working class. Another Clinton strength, that has been tossed around but largely ignored up to now is loyalty. Exit polls from all four states show that Clinton supporters are fiercely loyal. Here's an interesting one: the exit polls are showing Clinton as better regarded as best commander-in-chief, but Obama still more likely to get the nomination. This same dynamic further points out Clinton loyalties however, as Clinton supporters are far more resistant to supporting Obama than the other way around. Overall, Clinton also dominated on Economy and Health Care, and either ties or narrowly loses to Obama on Iraq. And, the two oldest campaign themes for both candidates still showed through with Clinton leading handily on Experience and Obama trumping her on Change. Moderates like Clinton, Liberals like Obama, and strangest of all, Republicans and Independents are split about 50/50 between the two. Clinton can also boast the best gains in the race this week, as she also won the most voters who changed their minds in the last three days. In all 3 states she won, she also took the most voters who had made up their mind over a month ago, which makes a nice argument for retention of supporters, too. That can only help her, with all the media coverage of Obama defectors lately.

One thing is certain: no one can say this was a bad day for Clinton. She is the clear victor of the much-awaited March 4th primaries. The Texas caucus is still only reporting 35%, but shows Obama with a 10 point lead, but Clinton closing the gap fast. Regardless, he will not pass her in the popular vote, and the "Obama always does better in caucuses" argument will be even more true if he does win. Clinton still won Texas. Her biggest win was Rhode Island, but that also easily trumps Obama's single win, which yields less delegates. Between the two, she still picked up more delegates. Overall, Clinton will pick up more delegates tonight. Any argument that she is not still competitive is pretty much moot as she also over-performed already favorable predictions. In fact, most people though Obama would narrowly win Texas.

There was no knockout punch, but Clinton did better than expected, a very good result for her and her campaign. Wavering donors and endorsements will be bolstered, the mood and appearance of the campaign is lifted, the possibility of a win is closer than it was yesterday. Clinton's arguments are working, people are listening again. Obama's "second firewall," the argument that Clinton "can't catch up" has been delivered a serious throwdown; Obama knows very well what momentum does for you, and Clinton has it now. Undoubtedly, Clinton is going to see her own surge of support and cash, and with those, you win elections. She's already leading heavily in Pennsylvania and no doubt that lead will increase. She may well cut into Obama's lead in North Carolina, too, and if she does that she will have every justification to argue for superdelegate support. "Never count out a Clinton." This is the second time Clinton has come back, and taken critical wins when it was predicted she was done. The Clinton campaign just got a fat burst of wind in its sails.