Few Surprises in Mississippi Primary

Only 92% are reporting in Mississippi as of now, so the results could change by some small margin, but Barack Obama is winning by double digits. Other than a wish and a hope, this is no surprise to anyone. There are a few interesting bits from the exit polls.

The racial divide was almost complete, which is a little unusual. Pretty uniformly, Clinton won the white vote by a landslide, and Obama won the black vote by a landslide. In an interesting reversal, Clinton took the $100K+ vote, which Obama usually wins. Clinton also hung onto her most dedicated demographic, the over 60 crowd. Also unsurprising, the moderate vs. liberal divide was pretty clear again, with Clinton taking the lead the closer to the middle and right and Obama taking the left-leaning voters and beyond. Here's a curious one, that I think is related, but I'm not sure how: even though exit pollers indicated that recent campaign ads negatively effected them, Clinton still won late deciders and electibility. Slightly backward as well, although Obama soundly won both men and women, Clinton did better with men than women in this primary. Catholics stayed loyal to camp Clinton, and she picked up white Protestants, which usually go to Obama. Finally, and the most interesting, more Republicans voted than Independents in Mississippi and Clinton took both.

Here's what I think about the Republican thing. Yes, Rush Limbaugh told Republicans to go vote for Hillary. Maybe they did. Maybe they didn't. Limbaugh's rabid conservatism is too radical for too many people. I believe the voter surge in this election cycle is partly responsible, and hand in hand, I think people are abandoning the party line in favor of their conscience. Both Clinton and Obama have drawn Republican support. Record voter turnouts in the primaries have drawn out unknown voters. I read an interesting argument recently that suggests voters in all parties may be evaluating Obama, Clinton and McCain on a bipartisan continuum, in the order from left to right. I think this idea holds a lot of water, considering the protracted visibility of more than two presidential candidates. Democrats have voted in Republican primaries as well, although not in as great numbers. The Bush administration has shamed the GOP. I find this a much more compelling argument for Republicans to support either Democrat.

So, it's on to Pennsylvania, where Clinton will score another hit. This race is getting tiresome. At this point I think everyone knows that neither Democrat is going to get wrap it up, and the much-dreaded Convention is now looking more like the super bowl than a smoking lounge. In the end of August, in Denver, one of them will finally get their knockout.