Campaign Strategy, But Whose?

OK, enough with the "Clinton should quit" stuff.

She's not going to. Everyone knows it. Barack Obama has cleared the path for her by saying he agrees the primary season should be allowed to play out. He even said mentioning Wright was fair game. Howard Dean, even Nancy Pelosi who seems to prefer Obama, have said all states are going to be heard before any decisions are made. Clinton passed the March 4 firewall, now the media is crying for her to drop out before the next nominating contest? One she is going to win? Come on.

There is also a fairly tangible sense of disappointment in the reporting of Clinton tax returns which were released yesterday. I think everyone was hoping for some new scandal to bite into, but there isn't. The only thing they can come up with so far is basically a claim that Bill Clinton is overpaid for his speeches. Big deal. The summary of the last 7 years of their tax returns also show that they paid taxes and made charitable contributions at a higher rate than taxpayers at their income level.

Now, lacking any sort of supporting data or calls from actual leaders in the Democratic party, the new media spin is, "Can Obama knock Clinton out without winning Pennsylvania?" Um, no. He can't. Not even St. Obama could pull off that miracle. Since when did winning a major nominating contest equal dropping out? Clinton is poised to win 3 out of 4 of the coming contests, and I would put money on her gaining significant momentum, in spite of the return of Obama to the spot of media darling. More like media bankroller, considering how much more money he is throwing the networks.

There is one interesting argument going around that says Obama could go for a knockout punch in PA, but the likelihood of him getting one is so small that he should back off and not waste his momentum there. If he appears to have mounted the biggest offensive of his campaign in PA, and still loses, it would look very bad for him, whereas, if he does what he has done: closes the gap significantly and then lets the chips fall where they may, there is less impact to his overall performance view. I'm not sure it's true, but it makes sense. I still think that is a gamble, but I can agree that it is a safer one than trying to score a knock out this late in the race, when everyone across the board pretty much has agreed there can't be one.

What's really going to happen, according to me is: the rest of the primaries are going to be carried out. Each candidate is going to focus their efforts on the areas that support their own case for party backing. The final agreements will be reached over Florida and Michigan. Then, the party meta structure will step in and the race will be decided with fair but quick positioning. We could still see some arguing all the way to August, and in spite of fears that it will be Clinton who causes it, I would not be surprised to see Obama complaining to the Credentials committee. Before this is all said and done, regardless of who gets the nomination, I would bet that Obama is going to be called the one who "will do anything to win."