Palin Is A Game Changer For Both Parties

I'd like to open with a quote from Lisa Schiffren, who writes for the conservative magazine, The National Journal:

No vice-presidential pick is ever perfect. Presidential candidates perforce make tradeoffs among competing considerations of appeal to key constituencies, particular expertise, ability to muster electoral votes, and compensation for perceived weaknesses at the top. But Sarah Palin brings real reform credentials, authentic Reaganite conservatism, small-government values, and the pragmatic ethos of a middle-class mother of five. And she is a natural talent. It couldn’t get much better than that—not even if she were a man. -- Lisa Schiffren

No doubt, John McCain is taking a calculated risk by picking Sarah Palin as his running mate. From my perspective, it was a no-brainer. Democrats had every opportunity to hold on to their monopoly on history. The "kingmaker strategy" orchestrated by the Obama and Clinton camps at the at Democratic National Convention would have been just as effective if it had been used to present another woman as VP. Instead, they allowed McCain's campaign to co-opt the woman factor and put a fresh shine on McCain's "maverick" image. Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton, but she is both interesting and engaging in her own right. She is also no Dick Cheney. She is a game changer. Not just for the GOP, but for the election overall.

Initial reactions were that Palin "neutralized" the inexperience argument. I think she simply makes it more interesting. By chronology, Obama has much more experience than Palin, but by what standard do we judge experience? Palin has two years more experience than Obama as a head of state. Palin also starkly represents the actual working class, where Obama is still struggling to cast a surer net. Palin does help Obama to silence the experience attacks, but she also capitalizes McCain's entire image in a way no other rumored VP-in-consideration could have. She is a hardline Conservative, but isn't afraid to go tough on her own party.

More interestingly, she has been an agent in Alaska and briefly on the national stage of the exact kind of change Obama talks about in his campaign. During his announcement speech for Palin, McCain was quick to underscore that with his nab of a frequent Democratic campaign logo, "more of the same old Washington politics." Palin used her veto power to protect employer benefits for same sex couples, even though she opposes gay marriage. She went after corrupt politicians inside her own party. She has opposed efforts to layer protections on the Alaskan Wildlife refuges, but in practice she stood up to Big Oil, the underlying issue. Palin brings a more realistic view of energy solutions to the ticket than McCain has previously been able to present.

Palin is a social conservative, but this is likely what won her the nomination over other Republican women potentials, who are closer to the middle on issues such as abortion and gun control. As I've said, I believe McCain picking a woman was a no-brainer (I predicted Condoleezza Rice) which became even more obvious when Clinton was "Passed Over," the title of a McCain campaign ad criticizing Obama for not picking Hillary Clinton as his VP. John McCain is a very smart man. I have said this before, many times: do not underestimate John McCain. He knew this election was going to be an image war and planned for it. With a woman on his ticket, he was prepared to counter Hillary Clinton if she won the Democratic nod, and prepared with his own historic element if Barack Obama won. Arguably, Obama made it possible to pick Palin by virtue of his age and relative short tenure, and McCain responded by retiring the experience argument, in a very genius way: co-opt Obama's change message with a VP who embodies Obama's main weakness as a strength, and who has employed Obama's brand of change without compromising her conservative ideals. Who knew it would be so easy?

Our current President, George W. Bush and his administration are as we speak drafting a deal with Iraq to get out and end the war. Very likely they will have it hammered out by January, possibly sooner. It will be Condoleezza Rice's last great accomplishment as Secretary of State and Dubya's swan song. I suspect, McCain took on some Bush policy stances in exchange for this favor. Neutralizing the Iraq argument would be a very hard hit to the Democratic campaign, as Iraq is currently the fall-back zone for their platform, their comfort issue. It narrows the field to the Economy, another area where Palin has boasting rights: one of her first acts as Governor of Alaska was to cut spending and fight (state level) congressional pork barreling, to the tune of $124 million cut from the state budget.

I do not believe large numbers of Clinton supporters will flock to Palin. There will be some, for certain. However, to Clinton's credit (now) she did not run a gender-focussed campaign, and most of her supporters were interested im her, not her gender. Naturally gender was a factor, and could be a winning one in a subsequent Hillary campaign, but it was not in 2008. Women across party lines may well be excited about Palin however. Even Hillary Clinton could not bring herself to condemn Palin too harshly, simply stating that a McCain-Palin presidency would take America in the "wrong direction," and stating that Palin brings an "important voice" to the campaign. Palin is more pertinent to undecided and swing voters than Clinton supporters, who are Democrats, and will be on board with Obama-Biden come November. I believe Palin's main appeal is that she is a flesh-and-blood proof that McCain does have his own image and is not simply a Bush clone. The GOP has been slow to react to the overwhelming slide toward Democrats of late, but I believe Palin represents the budding of a "Grand New Party." We may not agree with them still, but I believe McCain is pitching a major remodel of the Republican party, and that just might be the game changer he needs.