Last week in Denver, Democrats made more history. Barack Obama's acceptance speech of the Democratic nomination for president on Thursday was the most watched speech of all time, raking in just about 40 million viewers, and Hillary Clinton's speech Tuesday night netted 26 million. The dynamic duo toppled political coverage ratings records. Obama netted about a 5 point gain, according to Gallup who places him at +6 post-Convention, an impressive and encouraging bump. However, even while this was happening, Hurricane Gustav was already becoming a metaphor for John McCain and the approaching Republican Convention.
McCain was quick to respond. I will quote William Kristol who writes for The New York Times, who says McCain was acutely aware of the dangers in being seen as, "...accepting a role as a bit player in The Barack Obama Story..." - William Kristol, NY Times Op-Ed Column, A Star Is Born?
The Arizona Senator roped in the GOP conservative base, reclaimed his maverick image, and made a bold pitch for reform in one fell swoop with the announcement of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. The two wasted no time getting on the campaign trail, and immediately diverting attention to Gustav. McCain's statement to the press after he and Palin were briefed by the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency was clear: focusing on the human needs and the relief efforts is what matters right now.
Palin has dominated the media loops for four days. The only way to hold onto that momentum is to dovetail the Palin Bump into the Gustav bandwidth. House Minority Leader John Boehner carved out that framework in an interview with the Christian Science Monitor Sunday:
In addition to its obvious capacity for human devastation, the hurricane injects a host of political complications into to what was supposed to be a week of celebrations and party-building. The sight of thousands of people fleeing New Orleans three years after hurricane Katrina is a searing reminder of what critics have said was the Bush administration’s failed response to the 2005 disaster.
By toning down the festivities this week, McCain, who has denounced the Katrina response, can further define himself against Bush and define himself as a leader who puts people before politics. But if the hurricane turns into a replay of Katrina, it could refocus national attention on the Republican administration’s shortcomings in 2005.
Boehner said that by driving up oil and gas prices, the hurricane would underscore the strengths of McCain’s so-called “all of the above” energy plan, with its mix of new offshore drilling, nuclear power, and market incentives for alternative fuels. “The energy issue is not going to go away,” he said. [SOURCE: CSM, August 31, 2008]
If there was ever a more convenient ways and means by which Palin could be tested, Gustav represents it. Gustav is also projected to compromise as much as 25% of domestic oil production. The resultant spike in oil prices opens the GOP to push for emergency resources to lower gas prices just in time for the vote. It also underscores the need for alternative energy resources and reduction of foreign oil dependence. Palin can speak decisively and pertinently about all of these topics, and represents a state that is dead center in the middle of the energy debate. The Alaska governor herself has shown both tenacity and sensibility in this debate already, and has already played a critical role. She was deployed to St. Paul today where she and Cindy McCain are reported to have had breakfast with the Louisiana delegation, symbolic of GOP rallying behind Gustav-hit states. Palin has spent the day in briefings and meetings with delegates and party insiders, and has Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in tow. She is said to be working on her acceptance speech, which will be a thing to watch, I am sure. If the Democratic controlled Congress fails to co-opt this debate back into their corner, there could be trouble for Democrats. No doubt Palin will underscore energy concerns at the RNC and present herself and John McCain as pro-responsible energy. She is also an on-record combatant of pork spending, and no doubt she will showcase fiscal conservatism as well. Palin won the gubernatorial race against an incumbent and corrupt state dynasty, against the wishes of the party, by a landslide. She knows how to campaign, and Gustav makes a perfect backdrop to pander directly to her strengths.
While John McCain can be very engaging, he is boring on television. More than embracing the traditional vice presidential role of attack dog, Palin also brings a very charismatic and forceful presence to the ticket. McCain was badly battered by the Republican primary process, something that was largely unnoticed, overshadowed by the all encompassing drama of the Democratic race. In that way, Palin has filled the Hillary Vacuum. Sending her to St. Paul as his surrogate while McCain stays on the front lines of Gustav both gives gravity to Palin and ethical sure ground to McCain.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden are sitting pretty on top of a 6 point poll surge. Obama has been all over the news organizing his supporters and donors behind Gustav relief. The hurricane politicking has taken on a tone of cooperation and bipartisan concern. Both parties will benefit, but the onus is on the GOP to appear responsive. President Bush more specifically has the true responsibility for Gustav response, which has got to be a relief to McCain. If the government falls down, his reform platform is strengthened, if the government does what it should, it is a sign that McCain's "reform" is already being embraced, that the party base is responsive to the need for change. Senate Minority Leader Boehner also echoed that sentiment yesterday. Another quote from the Christian Science Monitor article:
Asked about the significance of a party now led by its “mavericks,” Boehner said the “reformist streak” is an appropriate response to the party’s recent political troubles.
“You know, they threw us out and frankly, we should have lost,” he said, alluding to the 2006 elections that cost Republicans control of Congress. “And the only way we can get back is if we earn our way back. And that means showing people we’ve learned our lessons.” [SOURCE: CSM, August 31, 2008]
The GOP has been as fast as McCain in their about-face. With respected Republicans like Jim Leech openly criticizing the party and endorsing Barack Obama, it has to be clear that any other track will lead to failure. FEMA and the Bush administration's bungled response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the crowning failure in a laundry list of GOP derelictions of duty, and proper management of Gustav is quickly becoming a litmus test for whether or not they have learned their lesson. So far, they are handling it in a timely manner, with appropriate resources, and under a tone of cooperation and benevolence. First Lady Laura Bush and Cindy McCain will serve as surrogates for Bush and McCain at the opening of the Republican National Convention tonight. No doubt their speeches will be hand tailored to appeal to unity, compassion and excitement about John McCain's reform platform. Morbid, but true, the GOP must be saying, "Thank God for Gustav."
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