Obama's Lead Fizzles As the Palin Bubble Grows

The continued frenzy over Sarah Palin has overshadowed more important news in the presidential campaign: Sen. Barack Obama's long-enjoyed, comfortable lead over Sen. John McCain has been erased. Gallup, which was projecting Obama up as much as +8 over McCain just two days ago, is now calling it for McCain at +3, McCain 48%, Obama 45%. Also, today, SurveyUSA released a "breaking news poll" of the 50 States which has McCain beating Obama by 5 points. In the same poll, McCain outpaces Obama on Iraq by 14 points, energy independence by 12 points, and education by 5 points. Obama led McCain in the survey on the environment by 8 points, and the two were virtually tied on health care, with McCain leading by just 1 point. Before the Democratic convention, Obama was holding steady, consistently in the +3 point area over McCain. At the end of the Democratic Convention, Obama soared up over the 50 percentile for the first time, topping off as much as 11 points over McCain. In the first few days of the GOP Convention, Obama's poll numbers seemed fairly cemented, buoying around +3 points. Today, with poll results post-Convention starting to come in, according to RealClearPolitics, Obama is just barely holding on to his lead at +.8, not even 1 point. This means Obama has actually lost somewhere around 2 points since both party Conventions have concluded.

I am an on-record Obama supporter, but this is very bad news. I don't see any point in pandering to the Protect Obama Press, or calling it any different than I see it. Unfortunately for Democrats, and much to what must be giggling glee of the GOP, John McCain succeeded in making the presidential race a race again. Sarah Palin delivered what may yet go down in history as the killing blow with the utterance, “There are those who use change to promote their careers. And then, there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change.” The "pitbull in lipstick" is already falling comfortably into just that role, and in spite of all the uber-liberal mud slinging about her uber-conservative social values, she, her family and her story are captivating. Palin is a true fresh face in Washington, toting on-record reform credentials, and proven toughness. She comes off as genuine, proud of herself and her family, hard working, and something else: she is benefiting from reverse sexism, just like Obama benefited from reverse racism. It was dramatically underplayed during the Democratic primary that somewhere around 20% of Democrats indicated that race played a role in their decision. And if the "liberal" party is comprised 20% of racists, what about the "conservative" party? We can't discount the real and actual race factor. And, now, with the re-injection of a woman into the campaign, we cannot discount the real and actual gender factor.

What I consider to be the real danger of this is that Obama needs to do something to reclaim control of the debate. He is sharply contrasted to Palin by virtue of their similarities: close in age (both in their mid-40's), both are low on what is accepted as "experience," and both are credible change agents. They also represent opposite ends of the political spectrum, which underscores Obama's urban court, and her rural one. Palin lives in the last American frontier, and easily embodies the pioneer icon, but with a very current point of view. Democrats should be careful not to attack her too much on foreign relations or national security, the main arguments agreed to be her weak areas. Alaska is within virtual shouting distance of Russia, whose main interest in America is oil, something Alaska has in abundance. I'd wager Sarah Palin knows all about Russia, foreign oil, and protecting thousands of miles of open coastline. Democrats, and the Obama campaign need to do something to reclaim the public eye; Palin has dominated the media cycles for nine days now, Obama has been outdone in Neilson ratings, and his monopoly on change has been broken.