The Shadow Campaign: Hillary Clinton Lives!

There's a new (?) conspiracy theory that finally hit mainstream media today: Hillary's Surprise, a news article wherein the New York Sun posits a plausible scenario whereby Hillary Clinton could win the Democratic nomination in 2 weeks. The Sun notes that they believe the chances of this occurring are small, but they seem to be passively endorsing or suggesting it.

I question if this is really a new theory or just an evolution. Clinton herself, along with a gaggle of her campaign officials, very sternly indicated they would take the primary contest all the way to the Convention floor if they had to. But, since she did in fact throw in the towel, and endorsed Obama, they have to make it look like "a movement."

While I have decided I will vote Democrat no matter what, I have to admit I'll hold out hope for Clinton until the nomination is officially awarded. I'll be more interested to see the coverage of the meetings and committee resolutions that happen during the "boring" parts of the Convention than anything else. I haven't been following the presidential campaign as closely as I was during the winter because since "Silly Season" passed, we're in Windbag Season. Both candidates are frosting on the personality wars and it's mostly uninteresting.

Here are the broad strokes of the Sun article, with my opinion throughout:

-In spite of what "should be" a landslide lead for the Democrats, McCain is running only a few points behind Obama in national averages, well within any margin or error. The economy is trashed, the Republicans are blamed for Iraq--

Hold up, there it is. The problem here is that Democrats are in the doghouse with voters too, and mostly over Iraq. A Democratic majority voted to authorize the war, but now they want to look like they opposed it. It was Barack Obama's first major score against Clinton. She consistently beat or tied him on Economy and Health Care, but he always trumped her on Iraq.

-Comparisons to Dukakis in '88 and Kerry in '04 are very sharp, both having been well ahead of Bush Sr. in '88 and Bush Jr. in 2004. They claim that Obama may also suffer in the debates, which we saw against Clinton often, and that knowing that sags confidence in his chances.

Here, I will only say: The only candidate to successfully face off a Bush was a Clinton.

-They reiterate the argument [plausible] that Clinton won the popular vote if you include Michigan and take away the Edwards delegates awarded to Obama. They further claim this could be enough to convince superdelegates en masse to break for Clinton.

Throwing the Edwards bit in is a little cheap. It implies Edwards conduct in some way shames Obama. It's a cheap attempt to "Wright" Obama again. But, that doesn't mean it won't have an effect. It was well publicized that both Clinton and Obama had several private meetings with Edwards after he suspended his campaign. It was well known that Edwards endorsement would have a poll splash. It also seemed that Edwards was leaning toward Clinton, as he always met with her first, and with his wife publicly endorsing her Health Care platform. It is a bit of fat to chew on.

Another article today Clinton to headline second night of convention also reports that it has not been settled yet if Clinton will be included in a roll call vote at the Convention. Fox News also reports on a video wherein Clinton appears to be calling for it, although she has not submitted the required paperwork. Both articles note that even if she does not submit a signed request for her name to be submitted to the nomination, delegates are ultimately free to cast their vote for whoever they choose. Back on July 14th, Heidi Feldman, a law professor from Georgetown said that if there was a "meaningful vote" at the Convention, she had no idea who would win. Interesting Al Gore is invisible right now.

I can't pretend I wouldn't love a Clinton coup. I also doubt it will happen. But it's some interesting conspiracy theory. Clinton scored the keynote address at the Convention, which is a coveted spot for future presidents. It also happens to fall on a very important anniversary in the women's movement, which will solidify her place as the new standard bearer for the women's movement. And, as was already noted by another journalist, by November, she will have the most valuable address book in Washington. Ted Kennedy may have been one of the forces that tipped the scales toward Obama, but Clinton will be able to claim his bragging rights in the Senate if she plays her cards right, and she will. I still firmly believe Hillary Clinton will be President of the United States. It just may not be this time.