Hillary Clinton Is Obama's Ace Smith

I'm still very interested in Clinton. Not only because I personally believe she will run for President again, but because I like and respect her. I actively campaigned for her in the primaries, but I am also hoping she will play a role in an Obama Presidency in a meaningful way. I'm not convinced Clinton herself was ever interested in the Vice Presidency, although she must have been conscious that she could not say no had it been offered, and now it may be true that the much-maligned "Dream Ticket" just may have been. Regardless, Clinton is hard on the trail for Obama, and she may be the Swing Factor. She represents the age group, demographic appeal and gender Obama most needs to sure up.

Call me crazy, but it seems to me that every state Hillary Clinton touches goes swing. She's either running a shadow campaign, or she has taken a page from Ace Smith's playbook. Smith is a political operative known for his take-no-prisoners strategies and ability to play hard ball in the ground game. His aggressive leadership during the primaries delivered Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio for Clinton. Smith joined Clinton's campaign at the last minute before California's Democratic primary, and got tacit credit for turning the tide to Clinton.

Other Super Tuesday "big state" victories for Clinton cemented her campaign stance that big state wins were the litmus test for the nomination. While I agree big state wins are critical to the General Election, Clinton was proven wrong in the primaries. Regardless, what remains clear is that Clinton knows how to compete in a national election. She has lived through at least four, up close. While I think there is a risk of Clinton upstaging Biden on the campaign trail, better her than Palin. And, as I have already said, it seems Hillary has the Midas Touch now that she's campaigning for someone else. We might have seen a glimmer of that kind of brilliance along the way, but I think it is fair to say the Clinton Brand was strengthened by her loss, not diminished.

Last week Hillary was all over Florida, campaigning hard for Obama. Since that time, Florida has gone swing. McCain lost somewhere around 5 points in Florida, and his lead is shredded to just about +1, or virtually tied. She was also in Ohio, where McCain lost his comfortable lead directly after her touchdown. This week, Clinton has been campaigning in Michigan, delivering fire-and-brimstone economic speeches. Michigan is an accepted must-have state, and is considered "swing" even though it is dependably Blue for the most part, but has been Red historically. Since Clinton has been in Michigan, Obama's lead has solidified to somewhere around +8, I'd estimate.

Unfortunately, Joe Biden seems to have the opposite effect on just about everything. I don't criticize him lightly, or just for the sake of it. Biden has turned on the Gaffe-O-Matic, and everywhere he goes, the polls flee toward McCain. West Virginia and Ohio have both swung back to McCain after Biden's disastrous comments about the coal industry in those two states over the last 10 days. In the last few days Biden has been in Virginia, which is leaning toward Obama again, but those polls didn't get believable until Obama himself got to Virginia. Obama and Biden are traveling together all week, likely to purge the growing impression that there is dissonance or tension between the ticket-mates.

Ironically, Clinton is delivering the very states that may have cost her own campaign its best shot at the Democratic nomination. If Obama is smart, he'll send her to Nevada, keep her pounding the pavement in Florida and let her make a lap around the rust belt. While the media is saying Clinton is the antidote to Palin, she may in fact be the Obama surrogate Biden is falling short at being. Maybe she's both. Watch for Clinton to be making appearances in West Virgina, a state where she pulverized Obama in the primaries, and New Hampshire which she should be able to deliver easily. Clinton has a unique combination of star power, credibility, political capital and an actual Midas Touch for fund-raising. Hillary Clinton was Obama's worthiest opponent, and came within a breath of beating him, knows intimately how to navigate a tooth-and-nail battle, which this election still is.