History Favors Obama

As of the last presidential election in 2004:
PRESIDENTIAL STATISTICS

• 43 of 43 have been white males.
• 35 of 43 have been 50 years old or older upon assuming office. (10 were 60 or older, 8 were 42 - 49.9)
• 32 of 43 have had some military rank. (1 was never an officer.)
• 26 of 43 have been born in modern day top 10 electoral weighted states.
• 25 of 43 have been professors or senior officers in higher education.
• 22 of 43 have been in Congress before being elected President. (2 were elected after.)
• 18 of 43 have been blood-related to at least one other president. (14 are related to 2 or more.)
• 18 of 43 have been related to European royalty.
• 18 of 43 have had a political base that was not their birth state.
• 18 of 43 have been Republican.
• 17 of 43 have been a state governor.
• 14 of 43 have been Democrat.
• 14 of 43 have been vice president (7 in by assassination or resignation of the president.)
• 11 of 43 have been generals in the army.
• 11 of 43 have been without military service.
• 10 of 43 have been of another political party (all outmoded, 1 was George Washington who was unaffiliated with any political party.)
• 9 of 43 have been Cabinet level officers (6 were Secretary of State.)
• 8 of 43 have been listed as not graduating from college.
• 6 of 43 have been directly paternally related.
• 6 of 43 have been a presidential candidate more than once before winning. (Except re-election.)
• 4 of 43 have been deemed to have "no previous Executive experience."
• 2 of 43 have been at the doctoral level or higher in education.

Using this crude data as a method for predicting the winner of the upcoming election, I think 2 main categories can be extracted: 1) the "more than half" category, and 2) the "Top 10" category. I believe the first category: Presidents who share a trait in common with more than half of all elected Presidents, interestingly mirrors the major credentials of the current candidates. The second category: Presidents who share a trait in common with ten or less other presidents, interestingly reflects some of the major themes of this election cycle.

Let's start with Category One: More than half of all US Presidents have been white males (100%), over 50, with military service, born in a top 10 electoral state, and a member of Congress prior to being elected. While the simple tick-off count favors McCain 4-to-2, McCain's age liability negates the maturity bonus, and Obama's race, if elected, represents a dramatic shift in American socio-political sentiment; some argue Obama's candidacy alone has negated the race barrier. That leaves the two at a tie, 2-2. Ironic? There's more.

Let's look at Category two. Ten or less Presidents have been: over 60 or under 40, from a 3rd or no party, have had to run more than once, or were deemed as having no executive experience, and the elite of the elite: only two have had a PhD or the equivalent, while 8 did not graduate from college. Obama has a Phd, and although McCain graduated from United States Naval Academy at Annapolis, he was in the bottom five, or the bottom .05% of his graduating class. (McCain is noted to have a high IQ, however.) Of note in this category as well is the statistic of 6 presidents being paternally related. Presidents George H. W. and George W. Bush, being father and son, have been held up as the very essence of what is wrong with American politics on every point of the spectrum from the economy, to war, to election reform (read: dynasty busting, which contributed to Hillary Clinton's failed bid for the Democratic nomination.) Also of note, George H. W. Bush was the most recent President to be related to European royalty. This brings up the "3rd party or no party affiliation" statistic: 10 presidents have been non-Democrat or non-Republican. While these parties (chiefly Whigs, Federalist and Democrat-Republican) are outmoded parties, the Whig party was challenged by President Andrew Jackson, the first modern Democrat and Jacksonian democracy shaped American political ideology until Abraham Lincoln, the first modern Republican realigned the two major parties, expelling the Whigs entirely, and solidified his party base by winning the Civil War. These kinds of political revolutions are the founding movements of our nation, of the equal rights movement, and of our modern political parties and I believe people are ready for it again. Congress as a whole has a lower approval rating than the President. Confidence in the government to protect American people is at all time lows. Both major party candidates are campaigning on reform platforms. Both major party candidates have a "history making" name on their ticket. On the Category Two count, it's a tie, by the way.

If you go down the full list you get a tie, too. Of note, the simple elimination tick off favors Hillary Clinton by +5 versus McCain, and +2 versus Obama, which may further support my argument that the least likely is most likely to happen this year. I know the statistics I extracted from the data are random, but the broad strokes are covered. I believe a true shift in American politics -- to the Left -- is underway. Republican dominance of the electorate has been shaken first by a vastly popular and successful Democratic President (Bill Clinton who broke the 300 electoral vote mark in '92 and '96) and by the rampant corruption of the Bush administration. All trustworthy sources are predicting a sizable majority for Democrats in Congress this year, and heading into the final month with a credible 6-10 point lead, it certainly looks like the Oval Office will be Blue again, too.