Here's the tally so far:
Last week of September, Florida: McCain leading in Florida. Hillary Clinton does a stump tour of Florida and by the close of business Friday, Obama is leading by 3 points. Today, October 10th, Strategic Vision, a Republican-leaning polling company, is calling Florida for Obama by 10 points.
End of Sept, into October, Michigan: McCain has closed the gap to within the margin of error in Michigan. Clinton arrives, after a hugely successful fund-raising tour in California. Today, Obama is back in a comfortable 8-10 point lead, and McCain has abandoned his campaign efforts in Michigan (four days after Clinton's arrival in the state.)
All of September and before, West Virginia: McCain in a very comfortable lead. Today, Clinton is on the war path in West Virginia, which began to slide out of McCain's comfort zone last week. As of today, American Research Group is calling West Virginia for Obama by 8 points.
Up Next, Ohio: For the last half of August and all of September, McCain was leading Ohio, sometimes by as much as 7 points. Obama regained the lead in the polls on October 1st, but by much narrower margins, well within competing range for the GOP, particularly in such a coveted state. With 20 electoral votes, Ohio is the 7th largest electoral weight state, and has gone to the winner of the Presidential election for the entire modern political era. Watch for Obama to jump up 5-10 points in Ohio this week. Obama himself has been in Ohio all week on a bus tour of the state, and McCain was there Wednesday. Sarah Palin has been in the Buckeye state all week.
Obama better have a Thank You card ready for Hillary on Nov. 6th. I admit a heavy bias in favor of Clinton in most things, and while I was truculent about Nancy Pelosi "handing the nomination" to Obama, I'll be overjoyed if Hillary Clinton hands the Presidency to Obama. Inside that Thank You card: we'll talk about that in another post.
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