Maine Hits The Campaign Trail Again

Maine is such a strange state. I'd say the state overall is socially conservative, but fiscally liberal. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, Maine has been dominated almost 2-to-1 by Republican governors, although since the late 1960's the state has been largely in the care of Democrats and two notable Independents (Angus King and James Longley.) The State Senate has a very narrow Democratic majority (19-16) at the moment, and the State House is similar, favoring Democrats (88-52.) Members of the US Senate and House from Maine have been fairly evenly split throughout time between Democrat and Republican. Currently the two Senators from Maine, both women, are Republican (Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.) The US Congressmen (House) from Maine are both Democrats (Tom Allen, currently running for the Senate, and Mike Michaud, who replaced John Baldacci, the current Democratic governor.) So, we see a state that leans Democratic on the national stage, but historically has been a Red state, notably breaking hard for Reagan and Nixon. Bill Clinton reclaimed Maine for the Democrats, and it has stayed roughly that way ever since.

In the current Senate race in Maine, Susan Collins (R) is heavily favored to retain her seat against Tom Allen. Allen is currently in the US House or Representatives, finishing his 6th consecutive term therein. Maine's other Senator, Olympia Snow (R) also has what could safely be called a seat for life. She has never faced a serious challenge to any of her seats in government, normally raking in 20-30 point landslides. Snowe is a true moderate, having the most liberal voting record in the Republican caucus. Collins could still be challenged, although her popularity grows with every re-election, and her record in the Senate (in spite of what is being said about her in campaign ads) is fairly moderate, second only to Snowe. Snowe and Collins were both important Republicans in the acquittal of Bill Clinton, for example.

John McCain has launched a major campaign push in the state, which represents only 4 electoral votes. His Maine push has been in the 2nd Congressional District, which is the largest of the state's two districts, and has been largely a Republican stronghold in the entirety of the 20th Century and into the 21st. The 2nd District is currently under the stewardship of Mike Michaud (D), but who is a member of the Blue Dogs Coalition, a group of 45 Congressional Democrats who are conservatives. If McCain can secure the support of the 2nd District in the General Election, Maine could split it's electoral votes, giving one to McCain. Jay Cost, at RealClearPolitics, has a very compelling article claiming that this is a move by McCain in Maine, and Nebraska, to avoid an electoral tie on election day. Maine's heavy Democratic leanings come mostly from the smaller 1st District in southern Maine, dominated by Portland and the naturally more liberal climate of a true metropolitan area. Additionally, John Baldacci, the lame-duck Governor is very unpopular even inside the Democratic party. His failure to deliver on repeated campaign promises, and his huge bungling of the State budget destroyed his 75% approval rating, and he barely won re-election in 2006, taking the popular vote by just barely 10,000 votes. In the Democratic presidential primaries of 2008, Baldacci (a superdelegate) endorsed Hillary Clinton, in spite of Obama taking the state almost 2-to-1. As Maine is a caucus state (instead of primary) there is no way to know the true vote count. But this certainly illustrates the volatile and unpredictable nature of Maine's state political leanings. Clinton was favored to win Maine by 17-20 points and the exact opposite happened. But, with the current governor backing a moderate in the primaries (over Obama, who is much more liberal) and the Senate coalition being solidly Republican, and with half the House coalition being on-record conservative, it seems to indicate McCain just might have a chance still.

We'll see. With neighboring New Hampshire still tending Red, if McCain actually picks off a few small-state upsets, there could be some interesting electoral shcematics come November 5th. Even if McCain loses, which it currently looks like he is going to, I think the claims that the electoral map is going to get re-drawn may be more than fiction this time around.