Rogue Swing States

Roughly three weeks ago, I called Virginia, "the new swing state." Three days later, I changed my mind. So, why not flip-flop again? But seriously. SurveyUSA is calling Virginia for Obama by 10 points, and notes that it is a major swing toward Obama, where he wins in almost every demographic. McCain currently carries no regions of the state, and only white men over 50 who are pro-life seem to be solidly in his camp. Let me say, I greatly trust SurveyUSA's polls both for their ethical transparency and the accuracy of their results. Any time there is a question of who is leading a specific race my first question is, What is SUSA predicting? If they are calling it for Obama, I believe it.

But what about these other states that I would now call Rogue Swing States?

Let's start with Florida. RealClearPolitics poll average is calling Florida for Obama by 3 points. SurveyUSA is still calling it for McCain, but by only 1 point, and in another SUSA poll conducted on Oct 3rd, Joe Biden trounced Sarah Palin in the VP debate. While we've seen no major movement in the polls at all since the VP debate took place, we may well see it influencing state polls. I have to say, I do believe Obama can take Florida. And, call me crazy, but I am still quite convinced that Hillary Clinton is the reason. Not only did she stick to her guns for months and demand that Florida (and Michigan, which we'll talk about later) have its voice heard, but she spent over a week there campaigning for Obama. She was on the advance team, under the auspice of her organization, HillPAC, and both Obama and Biden were hot on her heels. She was in Florida all the last week of September, which is the time when Obama passed McCain solidly in the polls and stayed there.

After the Changemobile touched down in Florida, Hillary headed north to Michigan. McCain was leading Obama in Michigan until about two weeks after Clinton conceded to Obama. Then, following Clinton's 4-day swing through Michigan, which alarmingly went Red for a few days, Obama's numbers spiked up to a 7 point lead, back to where he was leading up to the Democratic Convention. Obama and Biden then followed Hillary to Michigan, and we've seen Michigan go back solidly blue again. This is a one-two punch for Clinton and Obama at this point. It worked like a charm in Florida, and in Michigan. Watch for more of it to come.

Hillary, for her part, spent last week fundraising in California, and came up with a cool $8 million for the Democratic war chest. She then made a cash-mining swing through New Hampshire, another state she easily carried in the primaries, and turned them Blue again. New Hampshire, as little as a week ago was headed toward McCain. Clinton's touchdown in the Granite State signaled the end of that nonsense. Sen. Clinton is headed back to Florida this week, likely to sure up the numbers there. A Democratic win in Florida would be a true bitch-slap to the GOP.

There is some reason to think Obama may be able to compete in North Carolina, too. It's too soon to make any sweeping predictions there, but for the first time ever in the polls, Obama is leading there. McCain has maintained a safe 5-6 point lead steadily throughout the campaign, and spiked up to a 12 point lead after the Republican Convention. So, to even see Obama pass him one time says something. It's too bad John Edwards is in disgrace for the moment. He could make a difference there. What caused the North Carolina shift? Probably the economy, as there is a huge court battle going on in the state right now between Wachovia, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. No doubt, it is getting a lot of press, and we all know economic troubles always benefit the Democrats. Regardless of how it happened, it is a huge opening for Obama, and he should jump all over it. If Obama can take Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, there isn't really anywhere for McCain to hide. At the very least Obama has McCain on the run on his own turf, which is never good. It also forces McCain to spend resources on what should be "safe" states, and compromises his ability to compete in true swing states he needs like Ohio and Indiana.

We won't know what really happens until it happens on Nov. 4th, but Obama is definitely cruising toward a major electoral sweep.