Pennsylvania McCain's Hail Mary Pass

Less than two weeks to Election Day, Obama is leading by 7.6 points, according to the RealClearPolitics daily average. This is a return to his numbers throughout the month, after a 3-day dip down to a 5 point lead, which is still formidable this close to the end. This is the first time the RCP Average has placed Obama above the 50% mark in the general election. State polls are tightening in Florida, thus both Obama and Hillary Clinton have been campaigning in the Sunshine State for the last four days. Early voting opened in Florida Monday, Oct. 20th and at the same time, Obama's lead in the state started to lose air; as I predicted, Hillary was rerouted to Florida hot on the heels of a poll slump. Two national surveys this week are calling Florida for McCain (SurveyUSA being the most reliable) after a long stretch of Obama dominance. I believe there is a fair chance Obama can still carry Florida. But, too many presidential races have been prematurely called to have too much certainty.

While polls are still calling a landslide for Obama in PA, McCain is throwing the kitchen sink in the Keystone State. While I doubt McCain can win PA without, say another $200 million in last minute donations, what he is doing is keeping key Blue states in play, forcing Obama to give resources to safe states in order to regain Red footing in states like Florida, North Carolina and Georgia that are slipping from McCain's grasp. There are many electoral scenarios still to come, the race is still too far out to have any certainty. Although it looks like Obama is coasting toward a win, if -- and this is a big if -- McCain could stage an upset in Pennsylvania, he just might be back in the race. It is a big if not only because of Obama's huge lead in PA polls, but also because it would require McCain to also take every toss up state, and reclaim Florida. It's a long shot. They called Sarah Palin the Hail Mary Pass of the race, but I think McCain's last minute focus on PA might be it. Sometimes Hail Mary's pay off. No matter what is going on behind the scenes in the campaign offices, it is clear that neither McCain or Obama can rest on their laurels at this point. Mid-September, McCain came within 1 point of passing Obama in PA polls, and mid-march through mid-April he was ahead. It's not unthinkable that he could pull enough of the rural vote to actually win. It worked for Hillary Clinton, and while Clinton had a very different case going in, McCain is co-opting a lot of her message in PA. Honest or not, it could work. In 2004, John Kerry carried the state by a narrow margin, with most of the state voting for Bush; Kerry managed to rally the major metropolitan areas to rack up the vote totals he needed. In the last 40 years, Reagan and Nixon are the only Republicans to actually all-out win Pennsylvania, but that is a reason to think it could happen again, unlikely as it may seem. Obama could still win without Pennsylvania, but it would certainly make it a lot harder.

West Virginia is heading back to McCain in the polls, and while the Mountain State represents only 5 electoral votes, it is also the wedge between Pennsylvania, Virginia and Ohio, all states where McCain desperately needs to compete. WV is the coal and labor state, and if labor gets behind McCain, there could be some shocking results. It is no coincidence that WV started to lean back toward McCain after Joe Biden made dismissive comments about the coal industry. Western Pennsylvania, all of West Virginia and major parts of Ohio are natural comfort zones for Sarah Palin's "real America," and although Colin Powell recently pointed out that not only small towns have values, I'd still bet Palin's general sentiments sit better with rural voters than Biden's. Very likely, North Carolina will go to McCain, and Ohio is hotly in play, with very respectable polling firms differing as much as 10 points on who will win. West Virginia may be a good litmus test for how the rural vote will swing. I still predict an Obama win nationally, but it is not anywhere near as sure as the punditry claims. If this is the realigning election everyone seems to think it will be, watch for some Red realignment, too.