Electoral Musings

Today I decided it was time to look at the electoral map and see what I thought about McCain's seemingly dismal chances at a win. I agree with Richard Baehr from the American Thinker who says he believes Obama is the heavy favorite to win next Tuesday, but there are still a few scenarios where McCain could pull it off. With the radical variances in national polls this week, which are eloquently illuminated by Jay Cost at RealClearPolitics.com, and the sudden outpouring of negative press for Obama, I think McCain may have found an opening. I also still support my argument that Sarah Palin is a major positive for the Republican ticket. She evokes McCain's semi-abandoned campaign theme, the "Straight Talk Express," even with her gaffes; The Express was a much more effective campaign tactic than "Country First" has been, and Palin is peddling both with folksy charm and tight suits.

There is much adieu in the media about McCain's "desperate" efforts in Pennsylvania, and while I put the chance of the Arizona senator winning the Keystone State at around 20%, I think there is a greater benefit: validation. If McCain does win Pennsylvania it will have earned it's "swing state" status for sure, as solid Blue as it has been for quite some time. However, the fact that McCain and Palin are both campaigning hard in Pennsylvania is sending a message that they are taking the race seriously. Moreover, it makes McCain appear competitive. He could easily retreat to a more typical last-week Red stump state like Indiana or a "must have" state like Ohio. Note that Obama has been at breakneck speed all over Ohio, Joe Biden is in Florida and Hillary Clinton has headed north to New Hampshire, which has seen Obama's numbers soften this week. Contrast that to the GOP running mates, McCain and Palin who are both full-time in PA and have ramped up their rhetoric to fever pitch. McCain did not rise to the bait of losing a "dependable" Red state like Florida or Virginia, instead he put his nose to the grindstone and said, in a rally today, "We will win Pennsylvania." McCain has latched onto Obama's redistribution of wealth comments, which have gained validity due to the emergence of a very socialist-sounding interview he gave in 2001 arguing very strongly for redistribution. Michael Graham wrote an opinion column today in the Boston Herald condemning the media as a whole for completely losing its objectivity, and openly campaigning for and favoring Obama. He makes an accusation, that if it gets noticed, could prove troublesome for Obama. Graham claims:

Did you see that amazing video obtained by the Los Angeles Times of Sen. Barack Obama toasting a prominent former PLO member at an Arab American Action Network meeting in 2003? The video in which Obama gives Yasser Arafat’s frontman a warm embrace, as Bill Ayers look on? You haven’t seen it? Me, neither. The Los Angeles Times refuses to release it. And so an incriminating video of Obama literally “palling around” with PLO supporters becomes one more nail in the coffin of “objective journalism.[SOURCE]

If it is true, and the LA Times is intentionally withholding this video, it looks really bad for everyone. I have been cautioned by more than one of my friends not to "drink the GOP Kool-Aid" and believe the extremist rumors about Obama. I don't. But how many dubious associations does it take to cast serious doubts on the character of a politician? Apparently it has to be a prostitute or a mistress to have any validity. Being an avowed anti-white preacher, an unrepentant terrorist or a PLO member obviously has nothing to do with politics, whereas late night trysts at the Motel 6 does. If these "smears" on Obama do pay off, and McCain does win, they will praise him for sticking to his message. If he loses, it doesn't matter. McCain will go back to the Senate, maybe even pick up a Cabinet post as consolation prize, and end his days an American hero. But, the point of all this is, I do see some inroads to a win opening for McCain in the end game.

Here is how RealClearPolitics.com calls the election if it were today.


I think this is a very liberal estimate, based on poll of poll averages. While I do think Obama is the likely winner, I am not so sure he will carry Florida once it is all said and done, and I also question Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina. In those three states (as well as Florida) neither candidate is polling above 50%. Obama would still win if McCain won all of those states. Again, Obama is coming into the final stretch of the election with a heavy advantage, in money, in the polls, in favorable ratings, and in electoral projections. But, here is a scenario whereby McCain wins:



None of these states are out of the realm of possibility for Republicans. The only one that even seems like a stretch is Pennsylvania and, Nixon, Reagan and Bush Sr. all carried Pennsylvania. The biggest electoral sweeps in history are by Reagan (525 electoral votes in 1984) and Nixon (520 electoral votes in 1972), although both accomplished those landslides as the incumbent. McCain frequently calls out Ronald Reagan as his greatest hero, and I believe the media has predicted an Obama win to be the "end of Reaganism." Interestingly, Reagan was the "Democrat's Republican," and McCain does have some appeal in the Democratic base, as little as anyone wants to admit it now. McCain consistently polls 15-20% of registered Democrats supporting him, and while Obama tends to pull 20-25% of Republican voters, there are more Democratic voters. If McCain can make his case and win Pennsylvania, retain Florida, Virginia and and North Carolina and break the ties in Indiana and Ohio, we will see a very different November 5th than anyone is expecting: a President-elect McCain.

Here is something we want to avoid, but I see as a possible scenario, too:


This one is even more likely than an all-out win for McCain, and it would be bad, bad news. No one wants to see 2000 play out all over again, and rest assured the Bush-Cheney-Rove cabal would be all over an electoral tie. It seems that a Democratic-dominated House would "naturally" select Obama, but that is bukake. Many large states vote predominantly Republican but go Blue because the major metropolitan areas vote Democrat: Maine, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, California, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan to name a few hundred votes. The House that would resolve an electoral tie has a 36 vote majority for the Democrats, and and only 218 votes would be required to win, meaning McCain would only have to pull 19 Democrats to his side of the aisle. Like it or not, McCain does have a reputation for reaching across the aisle, and believe me, he would. Not to mention re-counts and appeals. The road has already been paved for those by the ACORN mess.

As I have noted, Obama is the most likely winner a week from today. But, McCain is not down, and he is certainly not out. The media is so anxious to call the race at this point, it is alarming. In a few days the tone of the election has changed. Obama may have made his "closing argument" last night, but watch for the fighting to reach a fever pitch no later than Friday. I'm not ready to retract my pro-Obama prediction, but I am feeling hesitant about it. If you haven't voted yet, get out there and vote now, or make sure you go to the polls on Tuesday.