Why I Think The GOP Will Flip on Gay Rights

My friend Maxomai and I have a friendly debate going on over my assertion that the GOP is going to flip in favor of gay rights. He recently claimed: "I am convinced that the GOP is going to remain bitterly hostile towards gay and lesbian rights for at least another generation. The Christian Nationalist Right is too deeply entrenched in the GOP, and the GOP is too heavily reliant on the Christian Nationalist Right, for it to be any other way. But, if I am wrong, the GOP decides to leapfrog Democrats on gay and lesbian rights, then the youth vote will be wide open."

Here's the rub: I have more faith in Conservatives than him, and Maxomai has more faith in Liberals than me. Another friend of mine put it quite bluntly, saying, "If the GOP quits viewing the fundies as their base and instead sheds them like the albatross they are, I would agree with you." I would only add that I believe the Democrats need to shed the ultra-Left just as badly.

Well, the LA Times thinks that the religious right is going to do the dirty work for the GOP, and shove off on their own. They are advancing the idea that the rash of sex, drug, and dishonesty scandals over the last few years throughout the Republican party have left a bad taste in the mouth of Evangelicals and that they will retreat from politics again; they assert that the wave of religious-right involvement in government spurred by the final decadences of the 1970's has run its course, and they will now withdraw again, to keep their own noses clean. I can see a lot of sense in this. You can only support a group or organization who professes your beliefs but regularly abandons them, and remains unrepentant, for so long. Actions do speak louder than words. Just ask the gay constituency, who are responding with lightening speed to President Obama's tepid efforts to support gay rights. They yanked the rug out from under Democrats with no hesitation whatsoever. Or, more accurately, they closed their checkbooks.

Let me ask you this: What if Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) ran for President in 2012? With the exception of one vote in 1996, when she she was a freshman Senator, and under extreme pressure from the freshly-minted GOP majority in Congress, Snowe has consistently voted in favor of gay rights. Human Rights Campaign gives her a lifetime rating of 78% in favor of gay rights, which is ahead of even many Democrats. Anyone who thinks Snowe is "too liberal" to get the GOP nomination, should think again. Her seniority in the Senate (36th overall, and 12th in the Republican caucus, ranking member of the Small Business Committee) gives her clout, and her moderate record gives her a bipartisan appeal. She would draw women, independents, and business interests. The state of Maine, which is a dependably Democratic state, has consistently re-elected her in the 70%+ range her entire 35-year career. She's the Hillary Clinton of Maine; she was elected Senator while she was still First Lady of the Pine Tree State. (Although she had already been in elected office 20 years at that point, and the governor was her 2nd marriage.)

Now, I'm not saying if Olympia Snowe runs for president the GOP will go pro-gay. The point I am getting at is this: moderate Republicans like Snowe are gaining a lot more attention, respect, and political sway than they have enjoyed in quite some time. Larger, more exciting news washed Arlen Specter's defection to the Democratic party out of the media loop, however, the importance of it should not be overlooked. Specter was a veteran Republican, who got pushed out of the GOP by the ultra-Right, and instead of crying, "good riddance," the GOP freaked. They quickly regained their composure and started bad-mouthing Specter, but the initial panic over the loss should tell us all we need to know: the GOP has lost its center, and unless they find a new message, and a new messenger, and fast, they are in trouble. Dick Cheney recently spoke out in favor of gay marriage. Dick Cheney. Likely because he has a gay daughter, Cheney has fairly consistently spoken and voted in favor of GLBT rights. My point is, if a hardliner, ultra-Conservative neocon like Cheney can support gay rights, any Republican can.

There is an opening for the GOP right now. The gay community is not happy with President Obama, and why should they be? We have a Democrat in the Oval Office, Democrats have control of Congress, and popular support for gay equality is at an all-time high nationwide, and yet the current administration persists in back-burnering pro-gay legislation, even goes so far as to defend anti-gay legislation already on the books, that the self-same president vowed on the campaign trail to repeal. Since 2004, the Log Cabin Republican, the GOP gay caucus, have been forging an increasingly stronger partnership with moderate congressional organizations like the Republican Main Street Partnership, which has a strong presence in the House of Representatives, and has attracted big name Senators such as Snowe and John McCain, and whose 8-member Board of Directors contains 6 members from states that currently have or are actively debating pro-gay rights legislation. In 2008, in spite of Obama's landslide win, the closest spread between Obama and McCain was Independents.

Minority voters tipped the balance in Obama's favor, and while we tend to think of "minorities" as racial minorities, at least 5 million self-identified gay and lesbian individuals voted in the 2008 presidential election. And 1.3 million of them voted for John McCain, or 27%, which is up 20% from 2004. If there is no repeal of DOMA, DADT, or any further regressive behavior from Democrats toward the GLBT constituency (even perceived regressiveness) those other 3.7 million voters just might look another direction in 2012. And, if the religious right stays home on election day, like the LA Times seems to think, Republicans will have even greater leisure to expand their base. 5 million votes, or more, is a pretty attractive lure. And, if statistics are right, there are somewhere between 35-50 million gay people in the United States, which means it is a huge untapped voter base, who just might come out on election day if the right political party said the right thing. And at this point, I don't hear Democrats saying it.