Super Tuesday Predictions

Four days until Super Tuesday. The major event leading up to the big day has already happened: John Edwards and Rudy Guiliani have called it quits, effectively making it a 3-way Day: Clinton, Obama and McCain. Barring a miracle, as I predicted, John McCain is going to be the big winner of the Republican race. The real interest in the campaign is on the Democratic side, and the revised view now that Clinton and Obama are the sole survivors. It also appears that both Democratic front runners have taken the popular sentiment against negative campaigning to heart, and the campaign is taking in the character of a love fest. Both Senators showed an extreme level of courtesy, respect and friendliness toward each other in the January 30th debate, even when cutting each other on Iraq and Health Care. Predictably as well, even Bill Clinton has dialed back his visibility in the campaign, and left off the attacks on Obama. Good Bill. Hillary Clinton is still leading in the polls as the favorite for the Democratic nomination, although Obama is closing the gap.

Here's an overview of the Super Tuesday numbers:

• There are 2038 delegates at stake on Feb. 5th


• Of the "magic number" of delegates needed to secure the nomination, this represents just over100%.


• As the polls stand now, this means the likely outcome will be: Clinton 53% , Obama 47%
  • I am predicting a 50/50 spread between Clinton and Obama for a delegate grab from Edwards and Undecided.


• If my prediction is correct, the final delegate count after Feb 5th will be somewhere around: Clinton 1312 (54%), Obama 1116 (46%)
  
• After Feb 5th, 1559 delegates will remain to be awarded, 1621 including Edwards current 62, representing 40% of the total delegates nationwide.

The likelihood that either Clinton or Obama could sweep the primaries and shut out the other is very low; the landslide victory required would take a very different climate than we are seeing. Additionally, the delegate grab from Edwards is not going to make much of a splash if the Super Tuesday results are as close as they seem they will be. The Democratic nomination will still be up for grabs. There are some serious heavy-weight states after Super Tuesday that could really give one of the two a major lead. The states with over 100 delegates are: Texas (228, the big boy after California), Pennsylvania (188), Ohio (161), North Carolina (134), Virginia (101), and Washington, Maryland and Wisconsin should get honorable mention with 97, 99 and 92 delegates respectively. The likelihood of a brokered convention is looming, although I doubt we will see it happen. I believe that if push comes to shove, the Superdelegates will weigh in before the need arises and will most likely favor Hillary Clinton, who is much more connected in the meta-levels of the Democratic party.

There are a few things that I believe are very pertinent. First and foremost, I believe it is clear beyond a doubt that the Democratic party will be unified behind one candidate. They are not going to allow a divided Democratic vote come November. I also believe that the sentiment in this campaign is "the sooner the better." I feel that after Super Tuesday, barring a dramatic win by either Clinton or Obama, the focus of the Democratic campaign is going to shift to a pre-brokering, to avoid the need for a brokered convention in August. A protracted battle to lock out one candidate or the other would be very damaging to the Democratic campaign as a whole.

There is a decent chance still that one of the two will be able to secure a shut-out of the other prior to the DNC's June 21st deadline for nomination submissions to the Convention. With the polls favoring Clinton, this means Obama would have to show a very serious surge in support in order to get ahead. Not only a surge of popular support, but a surge of support inside the machine of the Democratic National Convention. Lastly, and related to this, is the fact that Florida's primary results may end up being impossible to ignore. Hillary Clinton's giant win in Florida cannot be ignored, with over a million registered Democrats casting votes regardless of the official DNC sanctions on the primary. However, Clinton is also playing the game right in that she is allowing the debate to be carried past Super Tuesday, making it likely the lion's share of Florida's delegates will be awarded to her as both the demographics and the popular vote favored her. If Florida falls into line, it is almost inevitable that Michigan will follow. Historically, the Convention Chair has allowed delegates to be seated from closed-out states once the convention is under way. So long as this pattern is followed, Clinton stands to gain somewhere around 195 delegates.

Does John Edwards fall into the mix?

Yes and no. Yes, very much, an endorsement by Edwards of either Clinton or Obama would give a nice boost to either candidate, and could decisively swing the primary voting. No, on the delegate grab. 62 delegates is a negligible number after February 5th. Even if one of the two remaining candidates took every one of them, it would not do much to swing the numbers either direction. Edwards is teetering on the edge of obscurity. In order to actually have any kind of influence on the Democratic campaign, and possibly the entire presidential race, he needs to act quickly and smartly. Will he? Who knows.

To wrap up, my Super Tuesday prediction is that Hillary Clinton will come out on top. Her margin above Obama will likely fall in the area of 3-7%, very close. Overall, this is a very disappointing result, and is going to fuel a serious fire in both candidates. In a nationwide contest only rivaled by the General Election itself, such an even outcome is going to bolster both campaigns. Regardless of this, Clinton is going to take the day, and she will capitalize on this with the aplomb that only she is capable of. What is disappointing to me is that Clinton is not going to see a big enough victory to call it settled. Yet.